Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 2.82 – our chance 43% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultNovorizontino to win43% · @2.82
Double chanceEither team to win72% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.56
Avai vs Novorizontino: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Avai welcome Novorizontino to Estádio da Ressacada for a Serie B fixture on Monday 4 May (00:30 WAT). In the table, Avai are 17th, lower half, on 40 points after 37 matches; Novorizontino are 1st (leading the league) with 70. There are 30 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Avai, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Novorizontino, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Novorizontino, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Avai, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (30 Apr 2026) it ended Novorizontino 1–2 Avai.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Avai 0.9 xG, Novorizontino 1.4 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Avai 29%, draw 28%, Novorizontino 43%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Novorizontino to win @2.82 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Avai 0–1 Novorizontino. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Avai29%fair 3.46 · @2.65
Draw28%fair 3.60 · @2.95
Novorizontino43%fair 2.31 · @2.82
2.24Expected goals
0.88Avai xG
1.36Novorizontino xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
0–210%
1–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: Avai 0.9 – 1.4 Novorizontino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Avai
Novorizontino
Attack vs Serie B average
-27%
+44%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
-26%
Our expected goals here
0.75
1.51
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Avai vs Novorizontino?
On our numbers Avai have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Novorizontino 43%.
How many goals will there be in Avai vs Novorizontino?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Avai vs Novorizontino?
Our predicted score is Avai 0–1 Novorizontino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Avai vs Novorizontino?
Avai vs Novorizontino (Serie B) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Ressacada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
