Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVila Nova to win ✗55% · @1.80
Double chanceVila Nova or draw ✓80% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26
Vila Nova vs Athletic Club: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vila Nova welcome Athletic Club to Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga for a Serie B fixture on Monday 4 May (23:00 WAT). In the table, Vila Nova are 3rd, among the top four, on 66 points after 37 matches; Athletic Club are 14th (lower half) with 47. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Vila Nova, last 5: WDDWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Araguaína, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Athletic Club, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Nautico Recife, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Vila Nova, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Athletic Club.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vila Nova 1.7 xG, Athletic Club 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vila Nova 55%, draw 25%, Athletic Club 20%.
Lower-risk option: Vila Nova or draw (80%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vila Nova 1–1 Athletic Club. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vila Nova55%fair 1.81 · @1.80
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.35
Athletic Club20%fair 5.02 · @4.55
2.67Expected goals
1.74Vila Nova xG
0.93Athletic Club xG
57%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.7 – 0.9 Athletic Club expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Vila Nova
Athletic Club
Attack vs Serie B average
+16%
+6%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
+9%
Our expected goals here
1.75
0.92
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Nova to win✗
55%
1.81
1.80
Double chance
Vila Nova or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Vila Nova (draw no bet)
73%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Athletic Club +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.07
First team to score
Vila Nova to score first
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✗
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.26
–
Recent results
Vila Nova – last 6
WDDWDW
29 Apr
@ Araguaína
2–1
W
16 Apr
vs Capital Brasilia
0–0
D
8 Apr
@ Primavera MG
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
1 Apr
@ Sport Recife
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Operario Ferroviario
6–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Athletic Club – last 6
LLLWDD
27 Apr
vs Nautico Recife
0–1
L
23 Apr
vs Internacional
1–2
L
20 Apr
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
13 Apr
@ CRB
3–2
W
6 Apr
vs America Mineiro
1–1
D
2 Apr
@ Criciuma
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and Athletic Club.
What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs Athletic Club?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Athletic Club?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Athletic Club 20%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Athletic Club?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Athletic Club?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 Athletic Club, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Athletic Club?
Vila Nova vs Athletic Club (Serie B) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
