Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 3.25 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNovorizontino to win ✗38% · @3.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.69
Cuiaba vs Novorizontino: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cuiaba welcome Novorizontino to Arena Pantanal for a Serie B fixture on Sunday 17 May (00:30 WAT). In the table, Cuiaba are 13th, lower half, on 47 points after 37 matches; Novorizontino are 1st (leading the league) with 70. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Cuiaba, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Anápolis, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Novorizontino, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Botafogo SP, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Novorizontino, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.3 for Cuiaba.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cuiaba 0.9 xG, Novorizontino 1.1 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cuiaba 33%, draw 29%, Novorizontino 38%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Novorizontino to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cuiaba 0–1 Novorizontino. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cuiaba33%fair 3.02 · @2.42
Draw29%fair 3.41 · @2.86
Novorizontino38%fair 2.66 · @3.25
2.00Expected goals
0.90Cuiaba xG
1.11Novorizontino xG
50%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
0–014%
1–113%
1–012%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Cuiaba 0.9 – 1.1 Novorizontino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
Attack vs Serie B average
-17%
+44%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
-26%
Our expected goals here
0.85
1.27
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novorizontino to win✗
38%
2.66
3.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
71%
1.41
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.62
Draw no bet
Novorizontino (draw no bet)
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Cuiaba +1 (Asian handicap)✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.14
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
1.04
First team to score
Novorizontino to score first✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novorizontino / FT Novorizontino✗
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.69
–
Recent results
Cuiaba – last 6
LDLLDL
29 Apr
@ Anápolis
0–4
L
23 Apr
vs Botafogo SP
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Porto Vitória
2–3
L
8 Apr
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–1
L
31 Mar
@ Fortaleza EC
0–0
D
28 Mar
@ Gama
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Novorizontino – last 6
WWLLWD
10 May
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
7 May
@ Volta Redonda
2–1
W
30 Apr
vs Avai
1–2
L
26 Apr
@ Sport Recife
0–1
L
20 Apr
vs Athletic Club
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Operario-PR
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cuiaba and Novorizontino.
What is the prediction for Cuiaba vs Novorizontino?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Cuiaba vs Novorizontino?
On our numbers Cuiaba have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Novorizontino 38%.
How many goals will there be in Cuiaba vs Novorizontino?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cuiaba vs Novorizontino?
Our predicted score is Cuiaba 0–1 Novorizontino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Cuiaba vs Novorizontino?
Cuiaba vs Novorizontino (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Pantanal.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
