Vila Nova vs Avai: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Avai travel to face Vila Nova on Sunday 17 May in the Serie B, with Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga the venue – the ball rolls at 22:00 WAT. In the table, Vila Nova are 3rd, among the top four, on 66 points after 37 matches; Avai are 17th (lower half) with 40. There are 26 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Vila Nova, last 5: DWDDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Athletic Club, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Avai, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sampaio Corrêa RJ, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vila Nova 1.6 xG, Avai 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vila Nova 52%, draw 25%, Avai 22%.
Lower-risk option: Vila Nova or draw (78%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.77.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Vila Nova or draw (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vila Nova 1–0 Avai. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vila Nova52%fair 1.91 · @1.97
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.35
Avai22%fair 4.45 · @3.85
2.45Expected goals
1.63Vila Nova xG
0.82Avai xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.6 – 0.8 Avai expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Vila Nova
Avai
Attack vs Serie B average
+16%
-27%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.64
0.64
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Nova to win✓
52%
1.91
1.97
Double chance
Vila Nova or draw✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.77
Draw no bet
Vila Nova (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.43
–
Asian handicap
Avai +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.09
First team to score
Vila Nova to score first✓
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✓
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.64
–
Recent results
Vila Nova – last 6
DWDDWD
4 May
vs Athletic Club
1–1
D
29 Apr
@ Araguaína
2–1
W
16 Apr
vs Capital Brasilia
0–0
D
8 Apr
@ Primavera MG
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
1 Apr
@ Sport Recife
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Avai – last 6
WWLWLD
7 May
vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2–0
W
30 Apr
@ Novorizontino
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Ponte Preta
1–2
L
16 Apr
vs Caxias
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Operario-PR
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and Avai.
Our pick is Vila Nova or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Avai?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Avai 22%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Avai?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Avai?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–0 Avai, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Avai?
Vila Nova vs Avai (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
