Value bet: Vila Nova to win @ 3.40 – our chance 36% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAmerica Mineiro to win ✗36% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 14.11
America Mineiro vs Vila Nova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 24 May the Serie B brings America Mineiro against Vila Nova at Arena Independência. Kick-off: 22:30 WAT. In the table, America Mineiro are 19th, in the drop zone, on 29 points after 37 matches; Vila Nova are 3rd (among the top four) with 66. There are 37 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
America Mineiro, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Cianorte, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Vila Nova, last 5: WDWDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Avai, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Vila Nova, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for America Mineiro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give America Mineiro 1.1 xG, Vila Nova 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – America Mineiro 36%, draw 28%, Vila Nova 36%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Vila Nova to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: America Mineiro 1–1 Vila Nova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
America Mineiro36%fair 2.76 · @2.15
Draw28%fair 3.63 · @3.25
Vila Nova36%fair 2.76 · @3.40
2.33Expected goals
1.08America Mineiro xG
1.25Vila Nova xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: America Mineiro 1.1 – 1.2 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
America Mineiro
Vila Nova
Attack vs Serie B average
-28%
+16%
Goals conceded vs average
+4%
-15%
Our expected goals here
0.85
1.23
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
America Mineiro to win✗
36%
2.76
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.83
Draw no bet
America Mineiro (draw no bet)✗
50%
2.00
–
Asian handicap
America Mineiro +1 (Asian handicap)
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.74
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.07
First team to score
Vila Nova to score first✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
14.11
–
Recent results
America Mineiro – last 6
WLLLWD
7 May
vs Cianorte
3–2
W
4 May
vs CRB
1–2
L
29 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
25 Apr
@ Ponte Preta
0–1
L
16 Apr
vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2–1
W
9 Apr
@ Tombense
3–3
D
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Vila Nova – last 6
WDWDDW
17 May
vs Avai
2–0
W
4 May
vs Athletic Club
1–1
D
29 Apr
@ Araguaína
2–1
W
16 Apr
vs Capital Brasilia
0–0
D
8 Apr
@ Primavera MG
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between America Mineiro and Vila Nova.
What is the prediction for America Mineiro vs Vila Nova?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win America Mineiro vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers America Mineiro have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Vila Nova 36%.
How many goals will there be in America Mineiro vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for America Mineiro vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is America Mineiro 1–1 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is America Mineiro vs Vila Nova?
America Mineiro vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Independência.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
