Cuiaba 39%Draw 30%Vila Nova 31%Expected goals 1.02 – 0.95
67%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Vila Nova to win @ 3.75 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCuiaba to win ✓39% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓70% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 14.54
Cuiaba vs Vila Nova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vila Nova travel to face Cuiaba on Sunday 14 June in the Serie B, with Arena Pantanal the venue – the ball rolls at 21:00 WAT. In the table, Cuiaba are 13th, lower half, on 47 points after 37 matches; Vila Nova are 3rd (among the top four) with 66. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Cuiaba, last 5: WWLDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Ponte Preta, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Vila Nova, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Botafogo SP, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Vila Nova, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.3 for Cuiaba.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cuiaba 1.0 xG, Vila Nova 0.9 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cuiaba 39%, draw 30%, Vila Nova 31%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Vila Nova to win @3.75 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cuiaba39%fair 2.56 · @2.18
Draw30%fair 3.35 · @2.90
Vila Nova31%fair 3.22 · @3.75
1.96Expected goals
1.02Cuiaba xG
0.95Vila Nova xG
51%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
0–014%
1–114%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Cuiaba 1.0 – 0.9 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cuiaba
Vila Nova
Attack vs Serie B average
-17%
+16%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
-15%
Our expected goals here
0.97
1.02
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cuiaba to win✓
39%
2.56
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Cuiaba (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Vila Nova +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
1.04
First team to score
Cuiaba to score first✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
14.54
–
Recent results
Cuiaba – last 6
WWLDLD
9 Jun
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
1 Jun
vs CRB
2–0
W
22 May
@ Nautico Recife
0–1
L
17 May
vs Novorizontino
0–0
D
29 Apr
@ Anápolis
0–4
L
23 Apr
vs Botafogo SP
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vila Nova – last 6
WWWWDW
9 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
31 May
@ Londrina
1–0
W
24 May
@ America Mineiro
2–1
W
17 May
vs Avai
2–0
W
4 May
vs Athletic Club
1–1
D
29 Apr
@ Araguaína
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cuiaba and Vila Nova.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers Cuiaba have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Vila Nova 31%.
How many goals will there be in Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Cuiaba vs Vila Nova?
Cuiaba vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 14 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Pantanal.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
