Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
1
Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 2.10 – our chance 56% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNovorizontino to win ✗56% · @2.10
Double chanceNovorizontino or draw ✓79% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.37
Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:00 WAT, Sunday 14 June: Novorizontino v Nautico Recife in the Serie B, played at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi. In the table, Novorizontino are 1st, leading the league, on 70 points after 37 matches; Nautico Recife are 15th (lower half) with 46. There are 24 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Novorizontino, last 5: WDDLD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Goias, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Nautico Recife, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Fortaleza EC, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Novorizontino 1.8 xG, Nautico Recife 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 49%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Novorizontino 56%, draw 23%, Nautico Recife 21%.
Lower-risk option: Novorizontino or draw (79%) at 1.28.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Novorizontino to win @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Novorizontino or draw (79%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Novorizontino 1–0 Nautico Recife. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Novorizontino56%fair 1.79 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.20
Nautico Recife21%fair 4.69 · @3.55
2.61Expected goals
1.84Novorizontino xG
0.77Nautico Recife xG
49%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Novorizontino 1.8 – 0.8 Nautico Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Novorizontino
Nautico Recife
Attack vs Serie B average
+44%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
-26%
+17%
Our expected goals here
2.32
0.59
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novorizontino to win✗
56%
1.79
2.10 ▲
Double chance
Novorizontino or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.83
Draw no bet
Novorizontino (draw no bet)
72%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Novorizontino -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.07
First team to score
Novorizontino to score first✗
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Novorizontino ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novorizontino / FT Novorizontino✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.37
–
Recent results
Novorizontino – last 6
WDDLDW
11 Jun
@ Goias
4–0
W
31 May
@ São Bernardo
1–1
D
27 May
@ Chapecoense-sc
2–2
D
20 May
vs Chapecoense-sc
0–2
L
17 May
@ Cuiaba
0–0
D
10 May
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nautico Recife – last 6
LLWWLW
9 Jun
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
31 May
@ Sport Recife
0–2
L
22 May
vs Cuiaba
1–0
W
27 Apr
@ Athletic Club
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Ceara
0–1
L
1 Apr
@ Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novorizontino and Nautico Recife.
What is the prediction for Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife?
Our pick is Novorizontino or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife?
On our numbers Novorizontino have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Nautico Recife 21%.
How many goals will there be in Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife?
Our predicted score is Novorizontino 1–0 Nautico Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife?
Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 14 June 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
