Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.90 – our chance 56% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVila Nova to win ✓49% · @1.97
Double chanceVila Nova or draw ✓74% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.76
Vila Nova vs São Bernardo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vila Nova welcome São Bernardo to Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga for a Serie B fixture on Monday 6 July (23:00 WAT). In the table, Vila Nova are 3rd, among the top four, on 66 points after 37 matches; São Bernardo are 11th (lower half) with 52. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Vila Nova, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Novorizontino, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
São Bernardo, last 5: LLDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Criciuma, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Vila Nova, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for São Bernardo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vila Nova 1.5 xG, São Bernardo 1.0 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vila Nova 49%, draw 26%, São Bernardo 26%.
Lower-risk option: Vila Nova or draw (74%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vila Nova 1–0 São Bernardo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vila Nova49%fair 2.05 · @1.97
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.25
São Bernardo26%fair 3.91 · @3.95
2.51Expected goals
1.52Vila Nova xG
0.99São Bernardo xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–09%
2–19%
0–08%
0–18%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.5 – 1.0 São Bernardo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Vila Nova
São Bernardo
Attack vs Serie B average
+16%
+20%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
+3%
Our expected goals here
1.65
1.04
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Nova to win✓
49%
2.05
1.97
Double chance
Vila Nova or draw✓
74%
1.34
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.90 ▲
Draw no bet
Vila Nova (draw no bet)✓
66%
1.52
–
Asian handicap
São Bernardo +1 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.07
First team to score
Vila Nova to score first✓
56%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✓
30%
3.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.76
–
Recent results
Vila Nova – last 6
LWLWWW
26 Jun
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
20 Jun
vs Nautico Recife
4–3
W
14 Jun
@ Cuiaba
0–1
L
9 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
31 May
@ Londrina
1–0
W
24 May
@ America Mineiro
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
São Bernardo – last 6
LLDWDW
27 Jun
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Juventude
0–1
L
14 Jun
vs Sport Recife
0–0
D
7 Jun
@ CRB
3–2
W
31 May
vs Novorizontino
1–1
D
24 May
@ Atletico Goianiense
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and São Bernardo.
What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs São Bernardo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Vila Nova vs São Bernardo?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and São Bernardo 26%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs São Bernardo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs São Bernardo?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–0 São Bernardo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs São Bernardo?
Vila Nova vs São Bernardo (Serie B) kicks off on Monday 6 July 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
