Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Avai to win @ 2.86 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAvai to win ✓39% · @2.86
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.13
Avai vs Nautico Recife: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 12 July the Serie B brings Avai against Nautico Recife at Estádio da Ressacada. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Avai are 17th, lower half, on 40 points after 37 matches; Nautico Recife are 15th (lower half) with 46.
Current form
Avai, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Botafogo SP, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Nautico Recife, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Juventude, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Avai, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Nautico Recife.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Avai 1.3 xG, Nautico Recife 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Avai 39%, draw 29%, Nautico Recife 32%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Avai to win @2.86 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Avai 1–1 Nautico Recife. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Avai39%fair 2.57 · @2.86
Draw29%fair 3.42 · @2.98
Nautico Recife32%fair 3.14 · @2.60
2.26Expected goals
1.25Avai xG
1.00Nautico Recife xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Avai 1.3 – 1.0 Nautico Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Avai
Nautico Recife
Attack vs Serie B average
-27%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
+17%
Our expected goals here
1.18
0.82
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Avai to win✓
39%
2.57
2.86 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.85
Draw no bet
Avai (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Nautico Recife +1 (Asian handicap)✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.06
First team to score
Avai to score first✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Avai / FT Avai✓
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.13
–
Recent results
Avai – last 6
LLWLLW
6 Jul
@ Botafogo SP
1–3
L
28 Jun
@ Athletic Club
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Cuiaba
1–0
W
16 Jun
@ Londrina
2–3
L
11 Jun
@ Ceara
1–2
L
4 Jun
vs Chapecoense-sc
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Nautico Recife – last 6
DLLDLL
6 Jul
vs Juventude
0–0
D
28 Jun
vs Goias
0–1
L
20 Jun
@ Vila Nova
3–4
L
14 Jun
@ Novorizontino
2–2
D
9 Jun
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
31 May
@ Sport Recife
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Avai and Nautico Recife.
What is the prediction for Avai vs Nautico Recife?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Avai vs Nautico Recife?
On our numbers Avai have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Nautico Recife 32%.
How many goals will there be in Avai vs Nautico Recife?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Avai vs Nautico Recife?
Our predicted score is Avai 1–1 Nautico Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Avai vs Nautico Recife?
Avai vs Nautico Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Ressacada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
