Athletic Club 44%Draw 26%São Bernardo 30%Expected goals 1.33 – 1.10
78%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: São Bernardo to win @ 3.95 – our chance 30% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAthletic Club to win ✓44% · @1.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.68
Athletic Club vs São Bernardo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:30 WAT, Thursday 23 July: Athletic Club v São Bernardo in the Serie B, played at Estádio Joaquim Portugal. In the table, Athletic Club are 14th, lower half, on 47 points after 37 matches; São Bernardo are 11th (lower half) with 52.
Current form
Athletic Club, last 5: DDLWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Atletico Goianiense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
São Bernardo, last 5: DDLLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Avai, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Athletic Club, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for São Bernardo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Athletic Club 1.3 xG, São Bernardo 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Athletic Club 44%, draw 26%, São Bernardo 30%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: São Bernardo to win @3.95 – the bookmaker implies 25%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Athletic Club 1–1 São Bernardo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Athletic Club44%fair 2.27 · @1.96
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.25
São Bernardo30%fair 3.31 · @3.95
2.43Expected goals
1.33Athletic Club xG
1.10São Bernardo xG
54%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Athletic Club 1.3 – 1.1 São Bernardo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
Attack vs Serie B average
+6%
+20%
Goals conceded vs average
+9%
+3%
Our expected goals here
1.50
1.33
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Athletic Club to win✓
44%
2.27
1.96
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Athletic Club (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
São Bernardo +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.05
First team to score
Athletic Club to score first
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Athletic Club / FT Athletic Club✗
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.68
–
Recent results
Athletic Club – last 6
DDLWLD
18 Jul
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–0
D
14 Jul
@ Ceara
0–0
D
8 Jul
vs Operario-PR
0–1
L
28 Jun
vs Avai
1–0
W
20 Jun
@ Londrina
0–2
L
14 Jun
vs Goias
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
São Bernardo – last 6
DDLLLD
17 Jul
vs Avai
1–1
D
12 Jul
vs Cuiaba
2–2
D
6 Jul
@ Vila Nova
1–2
L
27 Jun
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Juventude
0–1
L
14 Jun
vs Sport Recife
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Athletic Club and São Bernardo.
What is the prediction for Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?
On our numbers Athletic Club have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and São Bernardo 30%.
How many goals will there be in Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?
Our predicted score is Athletic Club 1–1 São Bernardo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?
Athletic Club vs São Bernardo (Serie B) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Joaquim Portugal.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
