Vila Nova 41%Draw 29%Fortaleza EC 31%Expected goals 1.29 – 0.98
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultVila Nova to win ✓41% · @2.42
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.84
Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:35 WAT, Wednesday 22 July: Vila Nova v Fortaleza EC in the Serie B, played at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga. In the table, Vila Nova are 3rd, among the top four, on 66 points after 37 matches; Fortaleza EC are 5th (upper half) with 62.
Current form
Vila Nova, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Criciuma, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Fortaleza EC, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Novorizontino, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Fortaleza EC, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Vila Nova.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vila Nova 1.3 xG, Fortaleza EC 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vila Nova 41%, draw 29%, Fortaleza EC 31%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vila Nova 1–0 Fortaleza EC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vila Nova41%fair 2.44 · @2.42
Draw29%fair 3.51 · @2.98
Fortaleza EC31%fair 3.27 · @3.10
2.27Expected goals
1.29Vila Nova xG
0.98Fortaleza EC xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.3 – 1.0 Fortaleza EC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Vila Nova
Fortaleza EC
Attack vs Serie B average
+16%
-1%
Goals conceded vs average
-15%
-18%
Our expected goals here
1.31
0.86
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Nova to win✓
41%
2.44
2.42
Double chance
Either team to win✓
71%
1.40
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.85
Draw no bet
Vila Nova (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Fortaleza EC +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.06
First team to score
Vila Nova to score first✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✓
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
11.84
–
Recent results
Vila Nova – last 6
LLWLWL
18 Jul
@ Criciuma
0–2
L
10 Jul
@ Juventude
0–1
L
6 Jul
vs São Bernardo
2–1
W
26 Jun
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
20 Jun
vs Nautico Recife
4–3
W
14 Jun
@ Cuiaba
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Fortaleza EC – last 6
WLWWDL
18 Jul
vs Novorizontino
1–0
W
12 Jul
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–1
L
3 Jul
vs Ponte Preta
2–0
W
28 Jun
vs Sport Recife
2–1
W
21 Jun
@ CRB
1–1
D
17 Jun
vs America Mineiro
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and Fortaleza EC.
What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Fortaleza EC 31%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–0 Fortaleza EC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC?
Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC (Serie B) kicks off on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 01:35 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
