Value bet: Sport Recife to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCeara to win ✓40% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.75
Ceara vs Sport Recife: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 5 September the Serie B brings Ceara against Sport Recife at Estadio Castelão. Kick-off: 22:30 WAT. In the table, Ceara are 16th, lower half, on 43 points after 37 matches; Sport Recife are 9th (upper half) with 55. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Ceara, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Vila Nova, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Sport Recife, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Novorizontino, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ceara 1.2 xG, Sport Recife 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ceara 40%, draw 23%, Sport Recife 37%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Sport Recife to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ceara 1–1 Sport Recife. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ceara40%fair 2.52 · @2.24
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.15
Sport Recife37%fair 2.69 · @3.25
2.35Expected goals
1.20Ceara xG
1.15Sport Recife xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Ceara 1.2 – 1.2 Sport Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ceara to win✓
40%
2.52
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.83
Draw no bet
Ceara (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Sport Recife +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
Ceara to score first
46%
2.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ceara / FT Ceara✗
21%
4.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.75
–
Recent results
Ceara – last 6
LWLLWW
30 Aug
@ Vila Nova
0–2
L
22 Aug
vs Londrina
2–1
W
19 Aug
@ Nautico Recife
0–1
L
15 Aug
vs Cuiaba
1–3
L
8 Aug
vs Ponte Preta
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ São Bernardo
4–3
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sport Recife – last 6
LWLWWD
29 Aug
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
24 Aug
vs America Mineiro
3–0
W
19 Aug
@ Avai
1–2
L
15 Aug
vs Londrina
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Vila Nova
1–0
W
27 Jul
vs Cuiaba
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ceara and Sport Recife.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ceara vs Sport Recife?
On our numbers Ceara have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sport Recife 37%.
How many goals will there be in Ceara vs Sport Recife?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ceara vs Sport Recife?
Our predicted score is Ceara 1–1 Sport Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Ceara vs Sport Recife?
Ceara vs Sport Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Castelão.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
