Vila Nova 49%Draw 23%Goias 28%Expected goals 1.37 – 0.93
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 55% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVila Nova to win ✓49% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.44
Vila Nova vs Goias: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Goias travel to face Vila Nova on Thursday 10 September in the Serie B – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT. In the table, Vila Nova are 3rd, among the top four, on 66 points after 37 matches; Goias are 7th (upper half) with 58.
Current form
Vila Nova, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to Athletic Club, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Goias, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Fortaleza EC, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Vila Nova, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Goias.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vila Nova 1.4 xG, Goias 0.9 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vila Nova 49%, draw 23%, Goias 28%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vila Nova 1–1 Goias. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vila Nova49%fair 2.04 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.15
Goias28%fair 3.61 · @3.95
2.30Expected goals
1.37Vila Nova xG
0.93Goias xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–010%
2–09%
0–19%
2–19%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.4 – 0.9 Goias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Nova to win✓
49%
2.04
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Vila Nova (draw no bet)✓
64%
1.56
–
Asian handicap
Goias +1 (Asian handicap)✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.05
First team to score
Vila Nova to score first✓
54%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✗
28%
3.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.44
–
Recent results
Vila Nova – last 6
LWDWWL
5 Sep
@ Athletic Club
0–5
L
30 Aug
vs Ceara
2–0
W
23 Aug
@ Operario-PR
0–0
D
20 Aug
vs Ponte Preta
6–0
W
15 Aug
@ Atletico Goianiense
2–0
W
8 Aug
vs Sport Recife
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Goias – last 6
LWDLLW
5 Sep
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
28 Aug
vs São Bernardo
2–1
W
22 Aug
@ Cuiaba
1–1
D
19 Aug
vs Juventude
0–1
L
15 Aug
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
10 Aug
vs Londrina
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and Goias.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Goias?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Goias 28%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Goias?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Goias?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 Goias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Goias?
Vila Nova vs Goias (Serie B) kicks off on Thursday 10 September 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
