Value bet: Vila Nova to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVila Nova to win ✗38% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.59
Avai vs Vila Nova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 15 September the Serie B brings Avai against Vila Nova at Estádio da Ressacada. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Avai are 17th, lower half, on 40 points after 37 matches; Vila Nova are 3rd (among the top four) with 66. There are 26 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Avai, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Fortaleza EC, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Vila Nova, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Goias, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Vila Nova, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Avai.
Head to head
When they last met (17 May 2026) it ended Vila Nova 2–0 Avai.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Avai 1.2 xG, Vila Nova 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Avai 37%, draw 25%, Vila Nova 38%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Vila Nova to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.88, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Avai 1–1 Vila Nova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Avai37%fair 2.68 · @2.50
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @2.88
Vila Nova38%fair 2.64 · @2.90
2.44Expected goals
1.22Avai xG
1.22Vila Nova xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Avai 1.2 – 1.2 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Avai vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers Avai have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Vila Nova 38%.
How many goals will there be in Avai vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Avai vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is Avai 1–1 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Avai vs Vila Nova?
Avai vs Vila Nova (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Ressacada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
