Value bet: Cuiaba to win @ 3.75 – our chance 30% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVila Nova to win ✗46% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.42
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cuiaba travel to face Vila Nova on Thursday 8 October in the Serie B, with Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga the venue – the ball rolls at 00:30 WAT. In the table, Vila Nova are 3rd, among the top four, on 66 points after 37 matches; Cuiaba are 13th (lower half) with 47. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Vila Nova, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Botafogo SP, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Cuiaba, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Ponte Preta, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (14 Jun 2026) it ended Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vila Nova 1.2 xG, Cuiaba 0.9 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vila Nova 46%, draw 25%, Cuiaba 30%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Cuiaba to win @3.75 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 2.10 – longer than our fair 1.93, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vila Nova 1–1 Cuiaba. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vila Nova46%fair 2.20 · @2.10
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @2.90
Cuiaba30%fair 3.36 · @3.75
2.13Expected goals
1.22Vila Nova xG
0.91Cuiaba xG
52%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.2 – 0.9 Cuiaba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cuiaba 30%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 Cuiaba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba (Serie B) kicks off on Thursday 8 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
