Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNovorizontino to win ✗40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.09
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vila Nova welcome Novorizontino for a Serie B fixture on Sunday 18 October (22:00 WAT). In the table, Vila Nova are 3rd, among the top four, on 66 points after 37 matches; Novorizontino are 1st (leading the league) with 70.
Current form
Vila Nova, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Nautico Recife, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Novorizontino, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Ponte Preta, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Vila Nova, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.8 for Novorizontino.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Jun 2026) it ended Novorizontino 2–1 Vila Nova.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vila Nova 1.2 xG, Novorizontino 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vila Nova 35%, draw 25%, Novorizontino 40%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Novorizontino to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 1.83). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vila Nova 1–1 Novorizontino. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vila Nova35%fair 2.82 · @2.62
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @2.90
Novorizontino40%fair 2.50 · @2.70
2.48Expected goals
1.19Vila Nova xG
1.29Novorizontino xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.2 – 1.3 Novorizontino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Novorizontino 40%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 Novorizontino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
