Defensor Sporting 43%Draw 27%Cerro Largo 30%Expected goals 1.29 – 1.01
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.46 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.46Odds
Picks by market
ResultDefensor Sporting to win ✓43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.87
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 21 February the Primera División Apertura brings Defensor Sporting against Cerro Largo at Estadio Luis Franzini. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Defensor Sporting are 13th, lower half, on 12 points after 13 matches; Cerro Largo are 15th (in the drop zone) with 9. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Defensor Sporting 1.3 xG, Cerro Largo 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Defensor Sporting 43%, draw 27%, Cerro Largo 30%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.05.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.46). Most likely score in line with that pick: Defensor Sporting 1–1 Cerro Largo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Defensor Sporting43%fair 2.31 · @2.10
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.10
Cerro Largo30%fair 3.36 · @3.25
2.30Expected goals
1.29Defensor Sporting xG
1.01Cerro Largo xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 1.3 – 1.0 Cerro Largo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-0%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
+25%
+5%
Our expected goals here
1.34
1.04
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Defensor Sporting to win✓
43%
2.31
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.05
Draw no bet
Defensor Sporting (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Cerro Largo +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.46
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.51
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.04
First team to score
Defensor Sporting to score first✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Defensor Sporting / FT Defensor Sporting✗
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.87
–
Recent results
Defensor Sporting – last 1
W
14 Feb
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Cerro Largo
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensor Sporting and Cerro Largo.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.46.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Cerro Largo 30%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 1–1 Cerro Largo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo?
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
