Racing Montevideo 42%Draw 28%Danubio 30%Expected goals 1.39 – 0.90
65%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.47 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.47Odds
1
Value bet: Racing Montevideo to win @ 2.65 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✓42% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.35
Racing Montevideo vs Danubio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Danubio travel to face Racing Montevideo on Saturday 21 February in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Osvaldo Roberto the venue – the ball rolls at 13:45 WAT. In the table, Racing Montevideo are 6th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Danubio are 14th (in the drop zone) with 10.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Racing Montevideo 1.4 xG, Danubio 0.9 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Racing Montevideo 42%, draw 28%, Danubio 30%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Racing Montevideo to win @2.65 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.47). Most likely score in line with that pick: Racing Montevideo 1–1 Danubio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Racing Montevideo42%fair 2.38 · @2.65
Draw28%fair 3.60 · @3.00
Danubio30%fair 3.31 · @2.55
2.29Expected goals
1.39Racing Montevideo xG
0.90Danubio xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–010%
2–010%
0–19%
2–19%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.4 – 0.9 Danubio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Racing Montevideo
Danubio
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+9%
-33%
Goals conceded vs average
-12%
-1%
Our expected goals here
1.39
0.63
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win✓
42%
2.38
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.39
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Racing Montevideo (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
Danubio +1 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.47
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.49
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.16
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
1.04
First team to score
Racing Montevideo to score first✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo✓
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.35
–
Recent results
Racing Montevideo – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ Club Nacional
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Danubio – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Boston River
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Montevideo and Danubio.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Danubio?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.47.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Danubio?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Danubio 30%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Danubio?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Danubio?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–1 Danubio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Danubio?
Racing Montevideo vs Danubio (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 13:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
