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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Dandenong Thunder v Green Gully: numbers & prediction

Victoria NPL · Australia · George Andrews Reserve

Dandenong Thunder

LWLLL
1–1
FT

Green Gully

DLLDL
Dandenong Thunder 44%Draw 24%Green Gully 32% Expected goals 1.45 – 1.46
65%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2

Value bet: Green Gully to win @ 3.60 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultDandenong Thunder to win ✗44% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.96

Dandenong Thunder vs Green Gully: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

10:00 WAT, Saturday 11 April: Dandenong Thunder v Green Gully in the Victoria NPL, played at George Andrews Reserve.

Current form

Dandenong Thunder, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Bentleigh Greens, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Green Gully, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Altona Magic, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Dandenong Thunder 1.4 xG, Green Gully 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 57% and GG at 62%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Dandenong Thunder 44%, draw 24%, Green Gully 32%.
  • GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.53.
  • Price worth noting: Green Gully to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 32%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (65%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Dandenong Thunder 1–1 Green Gully. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Dandenong Thunder44%fair 2.25 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.70
Green Gully32%fair 3.15 · @3.60
2.91Expected goals
1.45Dandenong Thunder xG
1.46Green Gully xG
62%Both score
57%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–28%
2–18%
0–18%
1–08%
2–26%

From our goals model: Dandenong Thunder 1.4 – 1.5 Green Gully expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDandenong Thunder to win ✗44%2.251.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76%1.311.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓62%1.611.53
Draw no betDandenong Thunder (draw no bet)58%1.71–
Asian handicapDandenong Thunder +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.61–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79%1.271.18
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗57%1.771.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓65%1.541.48
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓83%1.20–
First team to scoreGreen Gully to score first47%2.11–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓40%2.47–
Half-time / full-timeHT Green Gully / FT Green Gully ✗22%4.51–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%11.96–

Recent results

Dandenong Thunder – last 6

LWLLLL
27 Mar@ Bentleigh Greens1–2L
21 Marvs South Melbourne3–0W
14 Mar@ Hume City1–3L
7 Marvs Avondale0–1L
28 Feb@ Sunshine Georgies1–2L
21 Febvs Heidelberg United0–1L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Green Gully – last 6

DLLDLL
28 Mar@ Altona Magic1–1D
20 Mar@ Bentleigh Greens0–4L
13 Marvs South Melbourne0–1L
6 Marvs Hume City1–1D
28 Feb@ Avondale0–5L
20 Febvs Sunshine Georgies0–2L
0.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Dandenong Thunder and Green Gully.

Dandenong Thunder vs Green Gully head-to-head page →

More Victoria NPL predictions

FT Heidelberg United2 Altona Magic2 163%1.36X21%4.60216%6.80 1.9–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.62 ✗
FT Preston Lions0 South Melbourne3 152%1.77X25%3.65223%3.80 1.6–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.22 ✓
FT Oakleigh Cannons3 Hume City2 159%1.68X23%3.80218%4.10 2.0–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.53 ✗
FT Dandenong City3 Bentleigh Greens0 143%2.55X23%3.50233%2.38 1.6–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Dandenong Thunder vs Green Gully?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.

Who will win Dandenong Thunder vs Green Gully?

On our numbers Dandenong Thunder have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Green Gully 32%.

How many goals will there be in Dandenong Thunder vs Green Gully?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Dandenong Thunder vs Green Gully?

Our predicted score is Dandenong Thunder 1–1 Green Gully, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is Dandenong Thunder vs Green Gully?

Dandenong Thunder vs Green Gully (Victoria NPL) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 10:00 (West Africa Time) at George Andrews Reserve.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.