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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Morocco v Paraguay: numbers & prediction

Friendlies · World · Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Paraguay

Morocco 42%Draw 27%Paraguay 31% Expected goals 1.15 – 1.01

81%

Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating

1.20Odds

Value bet: Paraguay to win @ 3.95 – our chance 31% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultMorocco to win ✓42% · @1.97

Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.00

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 13.03

Morocco vs Paraguay: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Paraguay travel to face Morocco on Tuesday 31 March in the Friendlies, with Stade Bollaert-Delelis the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Morocco 1.1 xG, Paraguay 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Morocco 42%, draw 27%, Paraguay 31%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Paraguay to win @3.95 – the bookmaker implies 25%, our ratings say 31%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Morocco 1–1 Paraguay. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Morocco42%fair 2.38 · @1.97

Draw27%fair 3.74 · @3.20

Paraguay31%fair 3.21 · @3.95

2.16Expected goals

1.15Morocco xG

1.01Paraguay xG

55%Both score

39%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–013%

0–112%

0–012%

2–18%

2–08%

From our goals model: Morocco 1.1 – 1.0 Paraguay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

	Morocco	Paraguay
Attack vs Friendlies average	+8%	+11%
Goals conceded vs average	-8%	-32%
Our expected goals here	1.26	1.25

Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Morocco to win ✓	42%	2.38	1.97
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	73%	1.37	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	55%	1.83	2.00 ▲
Draw no bet	Morocco (draw no bet) ✓	57%	1.74	–
Asian handicap	Paraguay +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	61%	1.63	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	65%	1.54	1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	61%	1.65	1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	81%	1.24	1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	91%	1.10	1.06
First team to score	Morocco to score first	47%	2.13	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	48%	2.09	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Morocco / FT Morocco ✗	22%	4.57	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✓	8%	13.03	–

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Morocco and Paraguay.

Morocco vs Paraguay head-to-head page →

More Friendlies predictions

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Equatorial Guinea1

Madagascar1 132%2.78X23%3.28245%2.41 1.5–1.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.33 ✓

China PR U231

Vietnam U230 154%1.77X26%3.25220%4.40 1.5–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.20 ✓

China PR U202

Australia U204 116%4.20X20%3.40264%1.67 0.2–1.0xG 2Australia U20 to win 64%@1.67 ✓

India U230

Tajikistan U231 145%2.45X21%3.50235%2.38 1.5–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.28 ✗

Liberia2

Libya2 133%3.30X25%2.90242%2.20 0.6–0.8xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 73%@1.50 ✗

Niger0

Togo1 137%2.40X27%2.97235%3.08 1.2–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 62%@1.62 ✗

Norway0

Switzerland0 147%1.99X23%3.75230%3.35 2.0–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 83%@1.20 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Morocco vs Paraguay?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Morocco vs Paraguay?

On our numbers Morocco have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Paraguay 31%.

How many goals will there be in Morocco vs Paraguay?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Morocco vs Paraguay?

Our predicted score is Morocco 1–1 Paraguay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Morocco vs Paraguay?

Morocco vs Paraguay (Friendlies) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.