Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.02 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultRubin to win56% · @1.35
Double chanceRubin or draw79% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @2.02
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals73% · @1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.38
Rubin vs Pakhtakor: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Sunday 15 February: Rubin v Pakhtakor in the Friendlies Clubs.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Rubin 1.4 xG, Pakhtakor 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Rubin 56%, draw 23%, Pakhtakor 21%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.02.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.02 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.31). Most likely score in line with that pick: Rubin 1–1 Pakhtakor. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Rubin56%fair 1.80 · @1.35
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @5.10
Pakhtakor21%fair 4.69 · @7.40
2.41Expected goals
1.37Rubin xG
1.03Pakhtakor xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Rubin 1.4 – 1.0 Pakhtakor expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Rubin
Pakhtakor
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average
-4%
+3%
Goals conceded vs average
-19%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.04
1.27
Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rubin to win
56%
1.80
1.35
Double chance
Rubin or draw
79%
1.27
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.78
2.02 ▲
Draw no bet
Rubin (draw no bet)
72%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Pakhtakor +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.38
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.92
1.99
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
73%
1.36
1.31
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.15
1.07
First team to score
Rubin to score first
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rubin / FT Rubin
26%
3.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.38
–
Recent results
Rubin
No recent results on record.
Pakhtakor
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rubin and Pakhtakor.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.31.
Who will win Rubin vs Pakhtakor?
On our numbers Rubin have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pakhtakor 21%.
How many goals will there be in Rubin vs Pakhtakor?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rubin vs Pakhtakor?
Our predicted score is Rubin 1–1 Pakhtakor, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Rubin vs Pakhtakor?
Rubin vs Pakhtakor (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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