Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Kauno Žalgiris travel to face Suduva Marijampole on Saturday 23 May in the A Lyga, with Marijampole Football Arena the venue – the ball rolls at 12:15 WAT. In the table, Suduva Marijampole are 2nd, among the top four, on 56 points after 32 matches; Kauno Žalgiris are 1st (leading the league) with 58. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Suduva Marijampole, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with FK Zalgiris Vilnius, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Kauno Žalgiris, last 5: WDDWW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over FK Trakai, away. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 5. Scoring is no problem – 3.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Kauno Žalgiris, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.8 for Suduva Marijampole.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Suduva Marijampole 1.1 xG, Kauno Žalgiris 1.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Suduva Marijampole 25%, draw 27%, Kauno Žalgiris 48%.
Lower-risk option: Kauno Žalgiris or draw (75%) at 1.21.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Suduva Marijampole 1–1 Kauno Žalgiris. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Suduva Marijampole25%fair 4.02 · @3.50
Draw27%fair 3.74 · @3.38
Kauno Žalgiris48%fair 2.07 · @1.88
2.61Expected goals
1.14Suduva Marijampole xG
1.47Kauno Žalgiris xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Suduva Marijampole 1.1 – 1.5 Kauno Žalgiris expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kauno Žalgiris to win✗
48%
2.07
1.88
Double chance
Kauno Žalgiris or draw✗
75%
1.33
1.21
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.73
Draw no bet
Kauno Žalgiris (draw no bet)✗
66%
1.51
–
Asian handicap
Suduva Marijampole +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.81
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.27
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.06
First team to score
Kauno Žalgiris to score first
52%
1.91
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kauno Žalgiris / FT Kauno Žalgiris✗
26%
3.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.03
–
Recent results
Suduva Marijampole – last 6
DDWWLW
10 May
vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1–1
D
6 May
@ TransINVEST Vilnius
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs Džiugas Telšiai
3–2
W
3 Apr
vs FK Trakai
5–0
W
10 Mar
@ FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0–1
L
7 Mar
vs TransINVEST Vilnius
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Kauno Žalgiris – last 6
WDDWWW
19 May
@ FK Trakai
4–0
W
5 May
vs Džiugas Telšiai
2–2
D
1 May
@ Banga
2–2
D
28 Apr
@ Sveikata
3–0
W
5 Apr
@ FK Zalgiris Vilnius
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Šiauliai
5–0
W
3.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Suduva Marijampole and Kauno Žalgiris.
What is the prediction for Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
On our numbers Suduva Marijampole have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Kauno Žalgiris 48%.
How many goals will there be in Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Our predicted score is Suduva Marijampole 1–1 Kauno Žalgiris, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris (A Lyga) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 12:15 (West Africa Time) at Marijampole Football Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
