Value bet: Deportivo Maldonado to win @ 2.40 – our chance 47% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win47% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–014% · fair 7.36
Deportivo Maldonado vs Defensor Sporting: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 15 March the Primera División Apertura brings Deportivo Maldonado against Defensor Sporting at Estadio Domingo Burgueno Miguel. Kick-off: 21:00 WAT. In the table, Deportivo Maldonado are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 13 matches; Defensor Sporting are 13th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Deportivo Maldonado, last 3: DWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Wanderers, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Defensor Sporting, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Central Espanol, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Maldonado 1.5 xG, Defensor Sporting 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Maldonado 47%, draw 26%, Defensor Sporting 26%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Deportivo Maldonado to win @2.40 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 47%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (50%, odds 1.83). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Defensor Sporting. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Maldonado47%fair 2.11 · @2.40
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @2.90
Defensor Sporting26%fair 3.79 · @3.00
2.42Expected goals
1.52Deportivo Maldonado xG
0.89Defensor Sporting xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: Deportivo Maldonado 1.5 – 0.9 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Maldonado
Defensor Sporting
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+14%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
-23%
+25%
Our expected goals here
1.83
0.82
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Maldonado to win
47%
2.11
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.36
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
50%
2.00
1.83
Draw no bet
Deportivo Maldonado (draw no bet)
64%
1.56
–
Asian handicap
Defensor Sporting +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Deportivo Maldonado to score first
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado
31%
3.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
14%
7.36
–
Recent results
Deportivo Maldonado – last 3
DWL
7 Mar
@ Wanderers
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Juventud
2–1
W
23 Feb
@ Penarol
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Defensor Sporting – last 5
DLLWW
9 Mar
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Cerro Largo
1–0
W
14 Feb
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–1
W
0.6Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Maldonado and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Deportivo Maldonado have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Defensor Sporting 26%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Maldonado vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Maldonado 1–0 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Maldonado vs Defensor Sporting?
Deportivo Maldonado vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Domingo Burgueno Miguel.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
