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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Germany v Netherlands: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe

Germany

DWLDD
Mon 16 Nov 2026

Netherlands

WDWDD
Germany 48%Draw 25%Netherlands 27% Expected goals 1.38 – 1.10
67%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.56

6/10Rating
1.56Odds

Picks by market

ResultGermany to win48% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.41

Germany vs Netherlands: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:45 WAT, Monday 16 November: Germany v Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League. In the table, Germany are 3rd on 5 points after 4 matches; Netherlands are 1st with 8. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Germany, last 5: DWLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Greece, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Netherlands, last 5: WDWDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Serbia, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Netherlands, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Germany.

Head to head

When they last met (24 Sep 2026) it ended Netherlands 1–1 Germany.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Germany 1.4 xG, Netherlands 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 58%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Germany 48%, draw 25%, Netherlands 27%.
  • GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.44.

Betarazi verdict

We are going with Under 3.5 goals (67%, odds 1.56 – longer than our fair 1.48, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Germany 1–1 Netherlands. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Germany48%fair 2.07 · @1.80
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @4.12
Netherlands27%fair 3.70 · @3.49
2.48Expected goals
1.38Germany xG
1.10Netherlands xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%

From our goals model: Germany 1.4 – 1.1 Netherlands expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

GermanyNetherlands
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average-17%+20%
Goals conceded vs average-28%+7%
Our expected goals here1.081.06

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGermany to win48%2.071.80
Double chanceEither team to win75%1.331.14
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score58%1.711.44
Draw no betGermany (draw no bet)64%1.56–
Asian handicapNetherlands +1 (Asian handicap)74%1.36–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals71%1.41–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals54%1.841.44
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals67%1.481.56 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals83%1.201.19
First team to scoreGermany to score first51%1.96–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time44%2.26–
Half-time / full-timeHT Germany / FT Germany25%3.96–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19%11.41–

Recent results

Germany – last 6

DWLDDL
4 Oct@ Greece0–0D
1 Octvs Serbia2–0W
27 Sepvs Greece0–1L
24 Sep@ Netherlands1–1D
29 Junvs Paraguay1–1D
25 Jun@ Ecuador1–2L
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Netherlands – last 6

WDWDDW
4 Octvs Serbia2–1W
1 Oct@ Greece2–2D
27 Sep@ Serbia2–1W
24 Sepvs Germany1–1D
30 Junvs Morocco1–1D
26 Jun@ Tunisia3–1W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

24 Sep 2026Netherlands v Germany1–1
Germany vs Netherlands head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Netherlands4220+28
2Greece4220+28
3Germany4121+15
4Serbia4004-50

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Greece Serbia 163%1.34X22%4.98215%7.34 1.8–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 68%@1.45
Switzerland Scotland 164%1.41X21%4.37215%6.87 1.8–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.27
FYR Macedonia Slovenia 113%6.33X23%3.86264%1.50 0.6–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 68%@1.33

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Germany vs Netherlands?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.56.

Who will win Germany vs Netherlands?

On our numbers Germany have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Netherlands 27%.

How many goals will there be in Germany vs Netherlands?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Germany vs Netherlands?

Our predicted score is Germany 1–1 Netherlands, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Germany vs Netherlands?

Germany vs Netherlands (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.