Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultRiga Mariners to win ✓65% · @1.57
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.88
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.28
Mārupe vs Riga Mariners: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 24 October the 1. Liga brings Mārupe against Riga Mariners. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Mārupe are 7th, upper half, on 34 points after 26 matches; Riga Mariners are 3rd (among the top four) with 59. There are 25 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Mārupe, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with JFK Ventspils, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Riga Mariners, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Skanste, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. 2.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Riga Mariners, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Mārupe.
Head to head
When they last met (27 Jun 2026) it ended Riga Mariners 2–0 Mārupe.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mārupe 1.1 xG, Riga Mariners 2.3 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 66% for three or more goals, 53% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mārupe 20%, draw 15%, Riga Mariners 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Riga Mariners to win (65%, odds 1.57 – longer than our fair 1.53, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mārupe 1–2 Riga Mariners. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mārupe20%fair 5.01 · @4.00
Draw15%fair 6.76 · @4.33
Riga Mariners65%fair 1.53 · @1.57
3.39Expected goals
1.13Mārupe xG
2.27Riga Mariners xG
53%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
0–29%
1–19%
0–18%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: Mārupe 1.1 – 2.3 Riga Mariners expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
Our pick is Riga Mariners to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
On our numbers Mārupe have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Riga Mariners 65%.
How many goals will there be in Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
Our predicted score is Mārupe 1–2 Riga Mariners, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Mārupe vs Riga Mariners?
Mārupe vs Riga Mariners (1. Liga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
