Chelsea 72%Draw 15%Port Vale 12%Expected goals 2.40 – 1.04
73%
Betarazi pick
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.20
8/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 56% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +28%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultChelsea to win72% · @1.05
Double chanceChelsea or draw88% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @2.30
GoalsOver 2.5 goals73% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.42
Chelsea vs Port Vale: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:15 WAT, Saturday 4 April: Chelsea v Port Vale in the FA Cup, played at Stamford Bridge.
Current form
Chelsea, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Paris Saint Germain, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Port Vale, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Doncaster, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chelsea 2.4 xG, Port Vale 1.0 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 73% for three or more goals, 56% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chelsea 72%, draw 15%, Port Vale 12%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.30.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (73%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chelsea 2–1 Port Vale. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chelsea72%fair 1.38 · @1.05
Draw15%fair 6.46 · @11.50
Port Vale12%fair 8.28 · @33.00
3.45Expected goals
2.40Chelsea xG
1.04Port Vale xG
56%Both score
73%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
3–18%
1–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Chelsea 2.4 – 1.0 Port Vale expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chelsea to win
72%
1.38
1.05
Double chance
Chelsea or draw
88%
1.14
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.79
2.30 ▲
Draw no bet
Chelsea (draw no bet)
86%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Chelsea -0.5 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.20
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
53%
1.87
1.53
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
65%
1.54
1.67 ▲
First team to score
Chelsea to score first
68%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Chelsea ahead at half-time
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chelsea / FT Chelsea
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.42
–
Recent results
Chelsea – last 6
LLWLDW
17 Mar
vs Paris Saint Germain
0–3
L
11 Mar
@ Paris Saint Germain
2–5
L
4 Mar
@ Aston Villa
4–1
W
1 Mar
@ Arsenal
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Burnley
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Hull City
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Port Vale – last 6
LLLWDW
24 Mar
@ Doncaster
0–1
L
17 Mar
@ Blackpool
2–3
L
11 Mar
vs Bradford
0–2
L
8 Mar
vs Sunderland
1–0
W
3 Mar
vs Bristol City
0–0
D
24 Feb
@ Northampton
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chelsea and Port Vale.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Chelsea vs Port Vale?
On our numbers Chelsea have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Port Vale 12%.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Port Vale?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Port Vale?
Our predicted score is Chelsea 2–1 Port Vale, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Chelsea vs Port Vale?
Chelsea vs Port Vale (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stamford Bridge.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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