Southampton vs Arsenal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Saturday 4 April: Southampton v Arsenal in the FA Cup.
Current form
Southampton, last 5: WDWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Norwich, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Arsenal, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Manchester City, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Southampton 1.1 xG, Arsenal 1.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 59% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Southampton 17%, draw 22%, Arsenal 61%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (62%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Southampton 1–1 Arsenal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Southampton17%fair 5.72 · @7.75
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @5.10
Arsenal61%fair 1.65 · @1.34
2.96Expected goals
1.06Southampton xG
1.89Arsenal xG
59%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–110%
0–29%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: Southampton 1.1 – 1.9 Arsenal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal to win
61%
1.65
1.34
Double chance
Arsenal or draw
83%
1.21
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.69
1.73
Draw no bet
Arsenal (draw no bet)
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Southampton +1.5 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
80%
1.25
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
60%
1.67
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
62%
1.62
1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.25
First team to score
Arsenal to score first
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Arsenal ahead at half-time
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.09
–
Recent results
Southampton – last 5
WDWWD
18 Mar
vs Norwich
1–0
W
11 Mar
@ West Brom
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Fulham
1–0
W
24 Feb
vs QPR
5–0
W
21 Feb
vs Charlton
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Arsenal – last 6
LWDWWW
22 Mar
vs Manchester City
0–2
L
17 Mar
vs Bayer Leverkusen
2–0
W
11 Mar
@ Bayer Leverkusen
1–1
D
7 Mar
@ Mansfield Town
2–1
W
4 Mar
@ Brighton
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Chelsea
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Arsenal.
What is the prediction for Southampton vs Arsenal?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Southampton vs Arsenal?
On our numbers Southampton have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arsenal 61%.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Arsenal?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Arsenal?
Our predicted score is Southampton 1–1 Arsenal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Southampton vs Arsenal?
Southampton vs Arsenal (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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