FK Neftekhimik 38%Draw 29%Shinnik Yaroslavl 33%Expected goals 0.95 – 1.08
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.46
6/10Rating
1.46Odds
2
Value bet: Shinnik Yaroslavl to win @ 3.70 – our chance 33% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultFK Neftekhimik to win38% · @2.11
Double chanceEither team to win71% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.16
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals84% · @1.10
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–16% · fair 15.65
FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FK Neftekhimik welcome Shinnik Yaroslavl to Neftekhimik Stadium for a First League fixture on Saturday 28 March (15:30 WAT). In the table, FK Neftekhimik are 17th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 17 matches; Shinnik Yaroslavl are 7th (upper half) with 26. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
FK Neftekhimik, last 4: WLDD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over FK Sokol Saratov, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Shinnik Yaroslavl, last 4: DDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Spartak Kostroma, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FK Neftekhimik 0.9 xG, Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.1 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FK Neftekhimik 38%, draw 29%, Shinnik Yaroslavl 33%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.16.
Price worth noting: Shinnik Yaroslavl to win @3.70 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.46). Most likely score in line with that pick: FK Neftekhimik 0–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FK Neftekhimik38%fair 2.66 · @2.11
Draw29%fair 3.43 · @2.99
Shinnik Yaroslavl33%fair 3.01 · @3.70
2.03Expected goals
0.95FK Neftekhimik xG
1.08Shinnik Yaroslavl xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–013%
1–012%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: FK Neftekhimik 0.9 – 1.1 Shinnik Yaroslavl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
FK Neftekhimik
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Attack vs First League average
-38%
-5%
Goals conceded vs average
+7%
-19%
Our expected goals here
0.74
1.19
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FK Neftekhimik to win
38%
2.66
2.11
Double chance
Either team to win
71%
1.41
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.96
2.16 ▲
Draw no bet
FK Neftekhimik (draw no bet)
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
FK Neftekhimik +0.5 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
61%
1.65
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
65%
1.53
1.46
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
84%
1.20
1.10
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
92%
1.09
1.01
First team to score
Shinnik Yaroslavl to score first
46%
2.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Shinnik Yaroslavl / FT Shinnik Yaroslavl
21%
4.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
6%
15.65
–
Recent results
FK Neftekhimik – last 4
WLDD
22 Mar
@ FK Sokol Saratov
3–0
W
16 Mar
@ Torpedo Moskva
0–3
L
17 Feb
vs Tekstilshchik
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Dinamo St. Petersburg
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 4
DDWL
22 Mar
@ Spartak Kostroma
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Enisey
1–1
D
9 Mar
vs FC UFA
1–0
W
2 Mar
@ Rodina Moskva
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FK Neftekhimik and Shinnik Yaroslavl.
What is the prediction for FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.46.
Who will win FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
On our numbers FK Neftekhimik have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Shinnik Yaroslavl 33%.
How many goals will there be in FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our predicted score is FK Neftekhimik 0–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
FK Neftekhimik vs Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Neftekhimik Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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