Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.35 – our chance 53% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultFakel to win58% · @1.61
Double chanceFakel or draw83% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @2.35
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.62
Fakel vs KAMAZ: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 28 March the First League brings Fakel against KAMAZ at Fakel Stadium. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT.
Current form
KAMAZ, last 4: LDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Enisey, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fakel 1.6 xG, KAMAZ 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fakel 58%, draw 25%, KAMAZ 17%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.35.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.35 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (67%, odds 1.43). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fakel 1–1 KAMAZ. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fakel58%fair 1.71 · @1.61
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.46
KAMAZ17%fair 5.90 · @5.90
2.46Expected goals
1.62Fakel xG
0.84KAMAZ xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Fakel 1.6 – 0.8 KAMAZ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Fakel
KAMAZ
Attack vs First League average
-1%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
-6%
+18%
Our expected goals here
1.73
1.06
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fakel to win
58%
1.71
1.61
Double chance
Fakel or draw
83%
1.20
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.89
2.35 ▲
Draw no bet
Fakel (draw no bet)
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
KAMAZ +1.5 (Asian handicap)
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.43
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
59%
1.70
1.51
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.12
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
1.01
First team to score
Fakel to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fakel / FT Fakel
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.62
–
Recent results
Fakel – last 2
LW
20 Mar
@ Rotor Volgograd
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Ural
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
KAMAZ – last 4
LDWW
8 Mar
@ Enisey
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Arsenal Tula
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs Lokomotiv
1–0
W
13 Feb
@ Chelyabinsk
5–2
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fakel and KAMAZ.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.43.
Who will win Fakel vs KAMAZ?
On our numbers Fakel have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and KAMAZ 17%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs KAMAZ?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs KAMAZ?
Our predicted score is Fakel 1–1 KAMAZ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs KAMAZ?
Fakel vs KAMAZ (First League) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
