Boston River 16%Draw 26%Penarol 58%Expected goals 0.72 – 1.49
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✓58% · @1.61
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓84% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.42
Boston River vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 26 March the Primera División Apertura brings Boston River against Penarol at Estadio Campeones Olimpicos. Kick-off: 00:30 WAT. In the table, Boston River are 11th, lower half, on 15 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22.
Current form
Boston River, last 4: LWDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Liverpool Montevideo, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Penarol, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Cerro, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Boston River.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Boston River 0.7 xG, Penarol 1.5 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Boston River 16%, draw 26%, Penarol 58%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Boston River 0–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Boston River16%fair 6.09 · @5.25
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.55
Penarol58%fair 1.73 · @1.61
2.21Expected goals
0.72Boston River xG
1.49Penarol xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–212%
1–112%
0–011%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Boston River 0.7 – 1.5 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Boston River
Penarol
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-15%
+24%
Goals conceded vs average
+8%
-29%
Our expected goals here
0.77
1.44
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✓
58%
1.73
1.61
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Boston River +1 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Penarol to score first✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✓
34%
2.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.42
–
Recent results
Boston River – last 4
LWDL
10 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–0
W
28 Feb
@ Cerro
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Danubio
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Penarol – last 6
WWDWWL
21 Mar
vs Cerro
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Danubio
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Club Nacional
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Deportivo Maldonado
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Boston River and Penarol.
What is the prediction for Boston River vs Penarol?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Boston River vs Penarol?
On our numbers Boston River have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Penarol 58%.
How many goals will there be in Boston River vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Boston River vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Boston River 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Boston River vs Penarol?
Boston River vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeones Olimpicos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
