Double chanceRacing Montevideo or draw ✓81% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.85
Racing Montevideo vs Progreso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Thursday 26 March: Racing Montevideo v Progreso in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto. In the table, Racing Montevideo are 6th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Progreso are 7th (upper half) with 19. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Racing Montevideo, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cerro, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Racing Montevideo 1.5 xG, Progreso 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Racing Montevideo 54%, draw 27%, Progreso 19%.
Lower-risk option: Racing Montevideo or draw (81%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Racing Montevideo 1–0 Progreso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Racing Montevideo54%fair 1.85 · @1.82
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.30
Progreso19%fair 5.23 · @4.20
2.38Expected goals
1.53Racing Montevideo xG
0.85Progreso xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
0–09%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.5 – 0.8 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Racing Montevideo
Progreso
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+9%
-10%
Goals conceded vs average
-12%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.43
0.84
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win✗
54%
1.85
1.82
Double chance
Racing Montevideo or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.95
Draw no bet
Racing Montevideo (draw no bet)
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Progreso +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Racing Montevideo to score first✓
58%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo✗
32%
3.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.85
–
Recent results
Racing Montevideo – last 5
WLWWD
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Danubio
4–0
W
15 Feb
@ Club Nacional
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 1
L
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Montevideo and Progreso.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Progreso?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Progreso?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Progreso 19%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–0 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Progreso?
Racing Montevideo vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
