Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultDanubio to win ✗36% · @2.52
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.39
Danubio vs Defensor Sporting: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 26 March the Primera División Apertura brings Danubio against Defensor Sporting at Jardines Del Hipódromo. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Danubio are 14th, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 13 matches; Defensor Sporting are 13th (lower half) with 12. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Danubio, last 4: WDLW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Juventud, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Defensor Sporting, last 5: WDLLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Club Nacional, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Danubio 1.1 xG, Defensor Sporting 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Danubio 36%, draw 28%, Defensor Sporting 36%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.93.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Danubio 1–1 Defensor Sporting. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Danubio36%fair 2.77 · @2.52
Draw28%fair 3.56 · @3.10
Defensor Sporting36%fair 2.79 · @2.72
2.22Expected goals
1.12Danubio xG
1.10Defensor Sporting xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Danubio 1.1 – 1.1 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-33%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
+25%
Our expected goals here
1.07
1.06
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Danubio to win✗
36%
2.77
2.52
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.39
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.93
Draw no bet
Danubio (draw no bet)
50%
1.99
–
Asian handicap
Defensor Sporting +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Danubio to score first✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Danubio / FT Danubio✗
20%
4.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.39
–
Recent results
Danubio – last 4
WDLW
16 Mar
vs Juventud
4–1
W
8 Mar
@ Penarol
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Racing Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Feb
vs Boston River
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Defensor Sporting – last 6
WDLLWW
21 Mar
vs Club Nacional
2–1
W
9 Mar
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Cerro Largo
1–0
W
14 Feb
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Danubio and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Danubio vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Danubio vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Danubio have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Defensor Sporting 36%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Danubio 1–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Defensor Sporting?
Danubio vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Jardines Del Hipódromo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
