Double chanceLiverpool Montevideo or draw ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.58
Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Progreso welcome Liverpool Montevideo to Parque Abraham Paladino for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Tuesday 31 March (15:00 WAT). In the table, Progreso are 7th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Liverpool Montevideo are 1st (leading the league) with 30.
Current form
Liverpool Montevideo, last 5: DDWWD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Central Espanol, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Progreso 0.9 xG, Liverpool Montevideo 1.4 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Progreso 25%, draw 27%, Liverpool Montevideo 47%.
Lower-risk option: Liverpool Montevideo or draw (75%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progreso 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Progreso25%fair 3.93 · @3.60
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @3.25
Liverpool Montevideo47%fair 2.11 · @1.98
2.24Expected goals
0.89Progreso xG
1.35Liverpool Montevideo xG
56%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
0–210%
1–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: Progreso 0.9 – 1.4 Liverpool Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-10%
+15%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
-31%
Our expected goals here
0.80
1.26
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✗
47%
2.11
1.98
Double chance
Liverpool Montevideo or draw✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.80
Draw no bet
Liverpool Montevideo (draw no bet)
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Progreso +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Liverpool Montevideo to score first
54%
1.85
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✗
28%
3.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.58
–
Recent results
Progreso – last 2
DL
26 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Liverpool Montevideo – last 6
DDWWDD
24 Mar
vs Central Espanol
3–3
D
17 Mar
vs Atletico Torque
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Boston River
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Cerro Largo
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Independiente Medellin
0–0
D
20 Feb
@ Cerro
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Liverpool Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo?
On our numbers Progreso have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Liverpool Montevideo 47%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Progreso 0–1 Liverpool Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Progreso vs Liverpool Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
