Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: America-RN to win @ 3.45 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFortaleza EC to win ✗39% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.35
America-RN vs Fortaleza EC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:00 WAT, Thursday 16 April: America-RN v Fortaleza EC in the Copa Do Nordeste, played at Arena das Dunas.
Current form
America-RN, last 5: LDWDD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to ABC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Fortaleza EC, last 5: LDWWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Ceara, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give America-RN 1.2 xG, Fortaleza EC 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – America-RN 34%, draw 27%, Fortaleza EC 39%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: America-RN to win @3.45 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: America-RN 1–1 Fortaleza EC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
America-RN34%fair 2.92 · @3.45
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.10
Fortaleza EC39%fair 2.57 · @2.05
2.21Expected goals
1.17America-RN xG
1.04Fortaleza EC xG
56%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: America-RN 1.2 – 1.0 Fortaleza EC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fortaleza EC to win✗
39%
2.57
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.90 ▲
Draw no bet
Fortaleza EC (draw no bet)
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Fortaleza EC +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
America-RN to score first✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT America-RN / FT America-RN✗
22%
4.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
14.35
–
Recent results
America-RN – last 6
LDWDDW
7 Apr
vs ABC
0–3
L
30 Mar
@ Jacuipense
0–0
D
25 Mar
vs Maranhão
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs ABC
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Potiguar Mossoró
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs GAS
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fortaleza EC – last 6
LDWWLW
9 Apr
@ Ceara
0–2
L
31 Mar
vs Cuiaba
0–0
D
28 Mar
vs Imperatriz
2–1
W
25 Mar
@ Ferroviario
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Botafogo SP
0–4
L
17 Mar
@ Nova Iguaçu
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between America-RN and Fortaleza EC.
What is the prediction for America-RN vs Fortaleza EC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win America-RN vs Fortaleza EC?
On our numbers America-RN have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Fortaleza EC 39%.
How many goals will there be in America-RN vs Fortaleza EC?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for America-RN vs Fortaleza EC?
Our predicted score is America-RN 1–1 Fortaleza EC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is America-RN vs Fortaleza EC?
America-RN vs Fortaleza EC (Copa Do Nordeste) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena das Dunas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Do Nordeste · Brazil · Arena das Dunas
Vitoria3
Piauí1
Sport Recife5
Maranhão0