Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSport Recife to win ✓63% · @1.33
Double chanceSport Recife or draw ✓85% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.27
Sport Recife vs Maranhão: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:30 WAT, Thursday 16 April: Sport Recife v Maranhão in the Copa Do Nordeste, played at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
Current form
Sport Recife, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Retrô, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Maranhão, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Barra, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours Sport Recife, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.8 for Maranhão.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sport Recife 1.8 xG, Maranhão 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sport Recife 63%, draw 23%, Maranhão 15%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sport Recife 1–1 Maranhão. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sport Recife63%fair 1.60 · @1.33
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @4.40
Maranhão15%fair 6.81 · @8.25
2.65Expected goals
1.76Sport Recife xG
0.89Maranhão xG
56%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Sport Recife 1.8 – 0.9 Maranhão expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sport Recife to win✓
63%
1.60
1.33
Double chance
Sport Recife or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.93 ▲
Draw no bet
Sport Recife (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Maranhão +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Sport Recife to score first✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Sport Recife ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sport Recife / FT Sport Recife✓
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.27
–
Recent results
Sport Recife – last 6
WWDWWD
9 Apr
vs Retrô
3–0
W
5 Apr
@ Londrina
2–1
W
1 Apr
vs Vila Nova
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ ABC
1–0
W
25 Mar
vs Jacuipense
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Cuiaba
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Maranhão – last 6
LDLLWD
12 Apr
@ Barra
0–3
L
8 Apr
@ Imperatriz
1–1
D
25 Mar
@ America-RN
0–2
L
12 Mar
vs Ceara
0–1
L
25 Feb
@ São Luiz
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs IAPE
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sport Recife and Maranhão.
What is the prediction for Sport Recife vs Maranhão?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Maranhão?
On our numbers Sport Recife have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Maranhão 15%.
How many goals will there be in Sport Recife vs Maranhão?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sport Recife vs Maranhão?
Our predicted score is Sport Recife 1–1 Maranhão, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Sport Recife vs Maranhão?
Sport Recife vs Maranhão (Copa Do Nordeste) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Do Nordeste · Brazil · Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho
Vitoria3
Piauí1
America-RN1
Fortaleza EC1