AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 22 March the 1. Division brings AEK Larnaca against Apoel Nicosia at AEK Arena. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, AEK Larnaca are 1st, leading the league, on 20 points after 9 matches; Apoel Nicosia are 4th (among the top four) with 17. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
AEK Larnaca, last 5: DWDWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Crystal Palace, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Apoel Nicosia, last 4: WLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Aris, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AEK Larnaca 1.6 xG, Apoel Nicosia 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AEK Larnaca 45%, draw 25%, Apoel Nicosia 30%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: AEK Larnaca 1–1 Apoel Nicosia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AEK Larnaca45%fair 2.22 · @2.10
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.25
Apoel Nicosia30%fair 3.34 · @3.25
2.82Expected goals
1.56AEK Larnaca xG
1.26Apoel Nicosia xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: AEK Larnaca 1.6 – 1.3 Apoel Nicosia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AEK Larnaca to win
45%
2.22
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.68
1.75
Draw no bet
AEK Larnaca (draw no bet)
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Apoel Nicosia +1 (Asian handicap)
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.36
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
50%
2.00
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
71%
1.40
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
84%
1.18
–
First team to score
AEK Larnaca to score first
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AEK Larnaca / FT AEK Larnaca
26%
3.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.93
–
Recent results
AEK Larnaca – last 6
DWDWDL
19 Mar
vs Crystal Palace
1–1
D
16 Mar
@ Ethnikos Achna
2–0
W
12 Mar
@ Crystal Palace
0–0
D
6 Mar
vs Akritas
3–0
W
1 Mar
vs Olympiakos
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Omonia Aradippou
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Apoel Nicosia – last 4
WLWL
15 Mar
@ Aris
2–1
W
8 Mar
vs Anorthosis
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Omonia Nicosia
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Ethnikos Achna
2–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AEK Larnaca and Apoel Nicosia.
What is the prediction for AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia?
On our numbers AEK Larnaca have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Apoel Nicosia 30%.
How many goals will there be in AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia?
Our predicted score is AEK Larnaca 1–1 Apoel Nicosia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia?
AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia (1. Division) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at AEK Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ethnikos Achna1