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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Palestino v Gremio: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · South America · Municipal de La Cisterna

Palestino

LWLWD
0–0
FT

Gremio

WLWDL
Palestino 33%Draw 28%Gremio 39% Expected goals 1.01 – 1.07
64%
Betarazi pick

Under 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultGremio to win ✗39% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.85

Palestino vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 30 April the CONMEBOL Sudamericana brings Palestino against Gremio at Municipal de La Cisterna. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Palestino are 4th on 3 points after 6 matches; Gremio are 2nd with 11.

Current form

Palestino, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Concepción, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Gremio, last 5: WLWDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Confiança, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Palestino 1.0 xG, Gremio 1.1 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Palestino 33%, draw 28%, Gremio 39%.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palestino 1–1 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Palestino33%fair 3.00 · @3.20
Draw28%fair 3.58 · @3.00
Gremio39%fair 2.58 · @2.35
2.08Expected goals
1.01Palestino xG
1.07Gremio xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–114%
0–113%
1–013%
0–012%
1–27%
0–27%

From our goals model: Palestino 1.0 – 1.1 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGremio to win ✗39%2.582.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72%1.391.33
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗54%1.852.00 ▲
Draw no betGremio (draw no bet)54%1.86–
Asian handicapPalestino +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓64%1.57–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗63%1.601.48
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓64%1.571.53
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82%1.221.18
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓92%1.091.05
First team to scoreGremio to score first ✗45%2.22–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓49%2.05–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✓21%4.79–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7%13.85–

Recent results

Palestino – last 6

LWLWDL
24 Aprvs Concepción0–1L
19 Apr@ Colo Colo1–0W
15 Aprvs Atletico Torque0–2L
12 Aprvs Deportes Limache1–0W
8 Apr@ Deportivo Riestra0–0D
2 Apr@ U. Catolica1–6L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Gremio – last 6

WLWDLD
21 Aprvs Confiança2–0W
19 Apr@ Cruzeiro0–2L
14 Aprvs Deportivo Riestra1–0W
12 Apr@ Internacional0–0D
9 Apr@ Atletico Torque0–1L
6 Aprvs Remo0–0D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Palestino and Gremio.

Palestino vs Gremio head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Sudamericana table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Atletico Torque6411+613
2Gremio6321+511
3Deportivo Riestra6123-65
4Palestino6033-53

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions

League hub
FT Cienciano1 Atletico-MG0 146%1.90X27%3.40227%4.00 1.3–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓
FT Carabobo FC2 Blooming0 162%1.65X23%3.70215%5.20 1.8–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.30 ✓
FT Vasco DA Gama3 Olimpia0 150%1.85X26%3.45224%4.20 1.3–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Palestino vs Gremio?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.

Who will win Palestino vs Gremio?

On our numbers Palestino have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Gremio 39%.

How many goals will there be in Palestino vs Gremio?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Palestino vs Gremio?

Our predicted score is Palestino 1–1 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Palestino vs Gremio?

Palestino vs Gremio (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de La Cisterna.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.