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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Vasco DA Gama v Olimpia: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · South America · Estádio São Januário

Vasco DA Gama

WLDLD
3–0
FT

Olimpia

LDWLW
Vasco DA Gama 50%Draw 26%Olimpia 24% Expected goals 1.28 – 0.91
79%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.25Odds

Picks by market

ResultVasco DA Gama to win ✓50% · @1.85
Double chanceVasco DA Gama or draw ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.98

Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Olimpia travel to face Vasco DA Gama on Thursday 30 April in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, with Estádio São Januário the venue – the ball rolls at 23:00 WAT. In the table, Vasco DA Gama are 2nd on 10 points after 6 matches; Olimpia are 1st with 13. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Vasco DA Gama, last 5: WLDLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Paysandu, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Olimpia, last 5: LDWLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Libertad Asuncion, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Vasco DA Gama 1.3 xG, Olimpia 0.9 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 59%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Vasco DA Gama 50%, draw 26%, Olimpia 24%.
  • Lower-risk option: Vasco DA Gama or draw (76%) at 1.22.
  • GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.83.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Olimpia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Vasco DA Gama50%fair 2.01 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.45
Olimpia24%fair 4.14 · @4.20
2.19Expected goals
1.28Vasco DA Gama xG
0.91Olimpia xG
47%Both score
41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%

From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.3 – 0.9 Olimpia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultVasco DA Gama to win ✓50%2.011.85
Double chanceVasco DA Gama or draw ✓76%1.321.22
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓53%1.891.83
Draw no betVasco DA Gama (draw no bet) ✓67%1.49–
Asian handicapOlimpia +1 (Asian handicap) ✗73%1.37–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓67%1.501.36
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗59%1.701.73
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79%1.271.25
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.111.08
First team to scoreVasco DA Gama to score first ✓52%1.93–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗47%2.11–
Half-time / full-timeHT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama ✓26%3.85–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14%6.98–

Recent results

Vasco DA Gama – last 6

WLDLDW
22 Apr@ Paysandu2–0W
15 Aprvs A. Italiano1–2L
7 Apr@ Barracas Central0–0D
5 Aprvs Botafogo1–2L
2 Apr@ Coritiba1–1D
19 Marvs Fluminense3–2W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Olimpia – last 6

LDWLWW
26 Apr@ Libertad Asuncion2–3L
16 Aprvs Barracas Central0–0D
9 Apr@ A. Italiano2–0W
2 Apr@ Sportivo Trinidense1–2L
18 Marvs Sportivo Luqueno1–0W
5 Mar@ Sportivo Trinidense1–0W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Vasco DA Gama and Olimpia.

Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Sudamericana table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Olimpia6411+413
2Vasco DA Gama6312+410
3A. Italiano6213-27
4Barracas Central6033-63

More CONMEBOL Sudamericana predictions

League hub
FT Cienciano1 Atletico-MG0 146%1.90X27%3.40227%4.00 1.3–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓
FT Palestino0 Gremio0 133%3.20X28%3.00239%2.35 1.0–1.1xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 64%@1.53 ✓
FT Carabobo FC2 Blooming0 162%1.65X23%3.70215%5.20 1.8–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.30 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?

On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Olimpia 24%.

How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?

Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Olimpia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia?

Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio São Januário.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.