Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✗83% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.05
UCV vs Independiente del Valle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente del Valle travel to face UCV on Wednesday 6 May in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, with Estadio Olimpico de la UCV the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, UCV are 3rd on 9 points after 6 matches; Independiente del Valle are 1st with 13.
Current form
UCV, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Rosario Central, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Universidad Catolica, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for UCV.
Head to head
When they last met (16 Apr 2026) it ended Independiente del Valle 3–1 UCV.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give UCV 1.0 xG, Independiente del Valle 2.0 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 54% for three or more goals, 53% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – UCV 17%, draw 22%, Independiente del Valle 61%.
Lower-risk option: Independiente del Valle or draw (83%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: UCV 1–2 Independiente del Valle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
UCV17%fair 5.84 · @5.10
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.70
Independiente del Valle61%fair 1.65 · @1.65
3.07Expected goals
1.03UCV xG
2.04Independiente del Valle xG
53%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
1–110%
0–210%
0–19%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: UCV 1.0 – 2.0 Independiente del Valle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✗
61%
1.65
1.65
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.85
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✗
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.10
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first✗
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
What is the prediction for UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
On our numbers UCV have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Independiente del Valle 61%.
How many goals will there be in UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
Our predicted score is UCV 1–2 Independiente del Valle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is UCV vs Independiente del Valle?
UCV vs Independiente del Valle (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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