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Independiente del Valle v Libertad Asuncion: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Estadio Banco De Guayaquil

Independiente del Valle

WWLWW
4–1
FT

Libertad Asuncion

DWLWL
Independiente del Valle 69%Draw 18%Libertad Asuncion 13% Expected goals 2.13 – 0.82
79%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.20Odds

Picks by market

ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓69% · @1.32
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓87% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26

Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Libertad Asuncion travel to face Independiente del Valle on Wednesday 20 May in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, with Estadio Banco De Guayaquil the venue – the ball rolls at 03:00 WAT. In the table, Independiente del Valle are 1st on 13 points after 6 matches; Libertad Asuncion are 4th with 0. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Universidad Catolica, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Libertad Asuncion, last 5: DWLWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with 2 de Mayo, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.

Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Libertad Asuncion.

Head to head

When they last met (28 Apr 2026) it ended Libertad Asuncion 2–3 Independiente del Valle.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Independiente del Valle 2.1 xG, Libertad Asuncion 0.8 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 57% and GG at 55%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente del Valle 69%, draw 18%, Libertad Asuncion 13%.
  • GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.93.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Libertad Asuncion. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Independiente del Valle69%fair 1.46 · @1.32
Draw18%fair 5.48 · @5.20
Libertad Asuncion13%fair 7.63 · @8.40
2.95Expected goals
2.13Independiente del Valle xG
0.82Libertad Asuncion xG
55%Both score
57%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%

From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 2.1 – 0.8 Libertad Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓69%1.461.32
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓87%1.151.05
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓55%1.831.93 ▲
Draw no betIndependiente del Valle (draw no bet) ✓84%1.19–
Asian handicapIndependiente del Valle -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓67%1.49–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79%1.271.20
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓57%1.741.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗64%1.551.50
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗80%1.241.20
First team to scoreIndependiente del Valle to score first68%1.46–
Half-time resultIndependiente del Valle ahead at half-time ✓49%2.06–
Half-time / full-timeHT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle ✓44%2.28–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.26–

Recent results

Independiente del Valle – last 6

WWLWWW
13 May@ Universidad Catolica3–0W
10 Mayvs Barcelona SC1–0W
6 May@ UCV0–2L
1 May@ Universidad Catolica3–2W
28 Apr@ Libertad Asuncion3–2W
22 Apr@ Delfin SC1–0W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Libertad Asuncion – last 6

DWLWLW
14 Mayvs 2 de Mayo0–0D
11 May@ Sportivo Luqueno3–2W
5 May@ Rosario Central0–1L
2 Mayvs Club Sp. San Lorenzo5–0W
28 Aprvs Independiente del Valle2–3L
26 Aprvs Olimpia3–2W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

28 Apr 2026Libertad Asuncion v Independiente del Valle2–3
Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle6411+513
2Rosario Central6411+813
3UCV6303-49
4Libertad Asuncion6006-90

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Always Ready1 Mirassol2 126%5.70X24%4.00251%1.56 1.2–1.4xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.30 ✓
FT Santa Fe2 Platense1 143%2.10X28%3.05229%3.75 1.3–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 63%@1.57 ✓
FT Boca Juniors1 Cruzeiro1 152%1.92X26%3.30222%4.10 1.3–0.8xG 1XBoca Juniors or draw 78%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?

On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Libertad Asuncion 13%.

How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?

Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 2–0 Libertad Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion?

Independiente del Valle vs Libertad Asuncion (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco De Guayaquil.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.