Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.03 – our chance 57% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRussia to win ✗66% · @1.58
Double chanceRussia or draw ✓86% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @2.03
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Russia vs Mali: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:00 WAT, Tuesday 31 March: Russia v Mali in the Friendlies, played at Gazprom Arena.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Russia 2.3 xG, Mali 1.0 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Russia 66%, draw 20%, Mali 14%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 2.03.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.03 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.31). Most likely score in line with that pick: Russia 2–0 Mali. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Russia66%fair 1.51 · @1.58
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.85
Mali14%fair 7.35 · @5.55
3.26Expected goals
2.29Russia xG
0.97Mali xG
57%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Russia 2.3 – 1.0 Mali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Russia to win✗
66%
1.51
1.58
Double chance
Russia or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
2.03 ▲
Draw no bet
Russia (draw no bet)
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Russia -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.31
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
2.05 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.23
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.05
First team to score
Russia to score first✗
68%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Russia ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Russia / FT Russia✗
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Recent results
Russia – last 1
W
27 Mar
vs Nicaragua
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Mali
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Russia and Mali.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.31.
Who will win Russia vs Mali?
On our numbers Russia have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Mali 14%.
How many goals will there be in Russia vs Mali?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Russia vs Mali?
Our predicted score is Russia 2–0 Mali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Russia vs Mali?
Russia vs Mali (Friendlies) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Gazprom Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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