Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultGremio to win ✓67% · @1.29
Double chanceGremio or draw ✓90% · @1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.49
Gremio vs Confiança: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 21 April the Copa Do Brasil brings Gremio against Confiança at Arena do Grêmio. Kick-off: 23:30 WAT.
Current form
Gremio, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Cruzeiro, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Confiança, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over AO Itabaiana, away. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Confiança, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Gremio.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gremio 1.6 xG, Confiança 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gremio 67%, draw 23%, Confiança 10%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.36 – longer than our fair 1.32, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gremio 1–0 Confiança. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gremio67%fair 1.49 · @1.29
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @4.75
Confiança10%fair 9.67 · @11.50
2.19Expected goals
1.62Gremio xG
0.57Confiança xG
47%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Gremio 1.6 – 0.6 Confiança expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gremio to win✓
67%
1.49
1.29
Double chance
Gremio or draw✓
90%
1.12
1.04
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.55
Draw no bet
Gremio (draw no bet)✓
87%
1.15
–
Asian handicap
Gremio -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.12
First team to score
Gremio to score first✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gremio / FT Gremio✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.49
–
Recent results
Gremio – last 6
LWDLDL
19 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
14 Apr
vs Deportivo Riestra
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Internacional
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
6 Apr
vs Remo
0–0
D
3 Apr
@ Palmeiras
1–2
L
0.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Confiança – last 5
WWLWL
9 Apr
@ AO Itabaiana
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Fluminense PI
2–0
W
26 Mar
@ Sousa
1–4
L
12 Mar
vs Tombense
2–0
W
26 Feb
vs AO Itabaiana
1–2
L
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gremio and Confiança.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Gremio vs Confiança?
On our numbers Gremio have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Confiança 10%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Confiança?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Confiança?
Our predicted score is Gremio 1–0 Confiança, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Confiança?
Gremio vs Confiança (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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