Liverpool Montevideo 44%Draw 28%Deportivo Maldonado 28%Expected goals 1.32 – 1.00
77%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.25
8/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win44% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win72% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.66
Liverpool Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportivo Maldonado travel to face Liverpool Montevideo on Sunday 5 April in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Belvedere the venue – the ball rolls at 22:30 WAT. In the table, Liverpool Montevideo are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 13 matches; Deportivo Maldonado are 4th (among the top four) with 22.
Current form
Liverpool Montevideo, last 5: DDDWW Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Progreso, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Deportivo Maldonado, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Central Espanol, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Liverpool Montevideo, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Deportivo Maldonado.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Liverpool Montevideo 1.3 xG, Deportivo Maldonado 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Liverpool Montevideo 44%, draw 28%, Deportivo Maldonado 28%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Deportivo Maldonado. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Liverpool Montevideo44%fair 2.27 · @2.08
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.25
Deportivo Maldonado28%fair 3.53 · @3.30
2.32Expected goals
1.32Liverpool Montevideo xG
1.00Deportivo Maldonado xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–110%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.3 – 1.0 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Liverpool Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+15%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
-31%
-23%
Our expected goals here
1.14
0.85
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win
44%
2.27
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win
72%
1.38
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.80
1.80
Draw no bet
Liverpool Montevideo (draw no bet)
61%
1.64
–
Asian handicap
Deportivo Maldonado +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
91%
1.09
–
First team to score
Liverpool Montevideo to score first
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.66
–
Recent results
Liverpool Montevideo – last 6
DDDWWD
31 Mar
@ Progreso
3–3
D
24 Mar
vs Central Espanol
3–3
D
17 Mar
vs Atletico Torque
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Boston River
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Cerro Largo
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Independiente Medellin
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maldonado – last 6
LWLDWL
31 Mar
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
24 Mar
vs Atletico Torque
1–0
W
20 Mar
@ Cerro Largo
1–3
L
7 Mar
@ Wanderers
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Juventud
2–1
W
23 Feb
@ Penarol
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liverpool Montevideo and Deportivo Maldonado.
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Deportivo Maldonado 28%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
