Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 53% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDefensor Sporting to win ✗40% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 13.20
Cerro vs Defensor Sporting: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cerro welcome Defensor Sporting to Estadio Luis Troccoli for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Sunday 5 April (19:30 WAT). In the table, Cerro are 9th, lower half, on 18 points after 13 matches; Defensor Sporting are 13th (lower half) with 12.
Current form
Cerro, last 5: WLLDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Juventud, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Defensor Sporting, last 5: DDWDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Albion FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerro 1.1 xG, Defensor Sporting 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 37%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro 33%, draw 27%, Defensor Sporting 40%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (63%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro 1–1 Defensor Sporting. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerro33%fair 3.07 · @3.30
Draw27%fair 3.65 · @2.92
Defensor Sporting40%fair 2.50 · @2.25
2.23Expected goals
1.10Cerro xG
1.13Defensor Sporting xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Cerro 1.1 – 1.1 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-9%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
+20%
+25%
Our expected goals here
1.45
1.28
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Defensor Sporting to win✗
40%
2.50
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Defensor Sporting (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
Cerro +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.13
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Defensor Sporting to score first✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Defensor Sporting / FT Defensor Sporting✗
21%
4.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
13.20
–
Recent results
Cerro – last 6
WLLDDL
25 Mar
vs Juventud
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Penarol
1–3
L
8 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Boston River
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Albion FC
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Defensor Sporting – last 6
DDWDLL
31 Mar
vs Albion FC
1–1
D
26 Mar
@ Danubio
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs Club Nacional
2–1
W
9 Mar
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Cerro have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Defensor Sporting 40%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Cerro 1–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
Cerro vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Troccoli.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
