Sao Tome and Principe 18%Draw 23%Ethiopia 60%Expected goals 0.58 – 1.42
82%
Betarazi pick
Ethiopia or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Ethiopia to win @ 1.94 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultEthiopia to win ✓60% · @1.94
Double chanceEthiopia or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.48
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.22
Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 27 March the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification brings Sao Tome and Principe against Ethiopia. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Tome and Principe 0.6 xG, Ethiopia 1.4 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Tome and Principe 18%, draw 23%, Ethiopia 60%.
Lower-risk option: Ethiopia or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (55%) at 1.48.
Price worth noting: Ethiopia to win @1.94 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ethiopia or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Tome and Principe 0–1 Ethiopia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Tome and Principe18%fair 5.70 · @4.20
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.00
Ethiopia60%fair 1.67 · @1.94
2.00Expected goals
0.58Sao Tome and Principe xG
1.42Ethiopia xG
45%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–119%
0–214%
0–014%
1–111%
1–28%
1–08%
From our goals model: Sao Tome and Principe 0.6 – 1.4 Ethiopia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ethiopia to win✓
60%
1.67
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Ethiopia or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.48
Draw no bet
Ethiopia (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Sao Tome and Principe +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.11
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Ethiopia to score first✓
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ethiopia / FT Ethiopia✓
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.22
–
Recent results
Sao Tome and Principe
No recent results on record.
Ethiopia
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Tome and Principe and Ethiopia.
What is the prediction for Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia?
Our pick is Ethiopia or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia?
On our numbers Sao Tome and Principe have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ethiopia 60%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia?
Our predicted score is Sao Tome and Principe 0–1 Ethiopia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia?
Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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