Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 53% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +60%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓53% · @3.00
Double chanceSomalia or draw ✓82% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.48
Somalia vs Mauritius: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Friday 27 March: Somalia v Mauritius in the Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification, played at Lalgy Arena.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Somalia 1.2 xG, Mauritius 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Somalia 28%, draw 53%, Mauritius 18%.
Lower-risk option: Somalia or draw (82%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Somalia or draw (82%, odds 1.30 – longer than our fair 1.23, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Somalia 1–0 Mauritius. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Somalia28%fair 3.54 · @2.18
Draw53%fair 1.87 · @3.00
Mauritius18%fair 5.44 · @3.35
2.13Expected goals
1.16Somalia xG
0.97Mauritius xG
51%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Somalia 1.2 – 1.0 Mauritius expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
53%
1.87
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Somalia or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.30 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Somalia (draw no bet)
61%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Mauritius +1 (Asian handicap)✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.14
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Somalia to score first✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Somalia / FT Somalia✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.48
–
Recent results
Somalia
No recent results on record.
Mauritius
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Somalia and Mauritius.
Our pick is Somalia or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Somalia vs Mauritius?
On our numbers Somalia have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 53% and Mauritius 18%.
How many goals will there be in Somalia vs Mauritius?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Somalia vs Mauritius?
Our predicted score is Somalia 1–0 Mauritius, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Somalia vs Mauritius?
Somalia vs Mauritius (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Lalgy Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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