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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

São Luiz v Joinville: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil

São Luiz

DDWLL
3–1
FT

Joinville

WLLLW
São Luiz 37%Draw 30%Joinville 33% Expected goals 1.06 – 1.04
51%
Betarazi pick

Not both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.95 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗

3/10Rating
1.44Odds
2

Value bet: Joinville to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultSão Luiz to win ✓37% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓70% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.68

São Luiz vs Joinville: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

São Luiz welcome Joinville for a Serie D fixture on Sunday 7 June (20:00 WAT).

Current form

São Luiz, last 5: DDWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Cascavel, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Joinville, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Guarany de Bagé, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give São Luiz 1.1 xG, Joinville 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – São Luiz 37%, draw 30%, Joinville 33%.
  • GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.44.
  • Price worth noting: Joinville to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 33%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (51%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: São Luiz 1–0 Joinville. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

São Luiz37%fair 2.70 · @2.30
Draw30%fair 3.33 · @2.50
Joinville33%fair 3.04 · @3.30
2.10Expected goals
1.06São Luiz xG
1.04Joinville xG
49%Both score
35%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–114%
1–013%
0–113%
0–012%
2–17%
1–27%

From our goals model: São Luiz 1.1 – 1.0 Joinville expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSão Luiz to win ✓37%2.702.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓70%1.431.44
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗51%1.951.44
Draw no betSão Luiz (draw no bet) ✓53%1.89–
Asian handicapJoinville +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗64%1.55–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓62%1.61–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗65%1.54–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84%1.19–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓94%1.07–
First team to scoreSão Luiz to score first44%2.25–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗49%2.06–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✗21%4.84–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13%7.68–

Recent results

São Luiz – last 5

DDWLL
31 May@ Cascavel0–0D
7 Mar@ Novo Hamburgo1–1D
2 Marvs Novo Hamburgo1–0W
25 Febvs Maranhão0–1L
16 Febvs Caxias1–2L
0.6Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5

Joinville – last 6

WLLLWL
30 Mayvs Guarany de Bagé2–0W
10 Marvs São Bernardo0–1L
7 Mar@ Marcílio Dias0–2L
28 Febvs Figueirense0–3L
24 Febvs CSA1–0W
19 Feb@ Carlos Renaux1–2L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between São Luiz and Joinville.

São Luiz vs Joinville head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT Blumenau0 Sao Jose1 141%2.50X31%2.50228%3.00 1.2–0.8xG 1XBlumenau or draw 72%@1.30 ✗
FT Independiente FSJ0 Marcílio Dias0 130%3.10X31%2.50240%2.45 0.8–1.0xG X2Marcílio Dias or draw 70%@1.30 ✓
FT Parnahyba1 Moto Club0 160%1.95X25%2.90216%3.75 1.7–0.8xG 1XParnahyba or draw 84%@1.22 ✓
FT Sampaio Correa0 Iguatu1 153%1.62X26%3.00221%5.50 1.5–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 52%@2.25 ✗
FT Guarany de Bagé0 Cianorte1 122%4.60X29%2.70249%1.85 1.0–1.4xG GGBoth teams to score 53%@2.40 ✗
FT Santa Catarina1 Cascavel0 138%2.15X29%2.62233%3.60 1.1–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 52%@2.10 ✗
FT Capital Brasilia2 União Rondonópolis0 165%1.44X24%3.80210%5.50 1.9–0.7xG 1Capital Brasilia to win 65%@1.44 ✓
FT Goiatuba EC1 CEOV Operário0 165%1.44X21%3.25213%7.00 1.7–0.6xG 1Goiatuba EC to win 65%@1.44 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for São Luiz vs Joinville?

Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win São Luiz vs Joinville?

On our numbers São Luiz have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Joinville 33%.

How many goals will there be in São Luiz vs Joinville?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for São Luiz vs Joinville?

Our predicted score is São Luiz 1–0 Joinville, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is São Luiz vs Joinville?

São Luiz vs Joinville (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 7 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.