ES Zarzis 38%Draw 28%ES Sahel 33%Expected goals 1.24 – 1.05
61%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.35 – our chance 50% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultES Zarzis to win ✓38% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.35
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.25
ES Zarzis vs ES Sahel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
ES Sahel travel to face ES Zarzis on Monday 4 May in the Ligue 1, with Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, ES Zarzis are 13th, lower half, on 6 points after 7 matches; ES Sahel are 10th (lower half) with 8. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
ES Zarzis, last 5: LDLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to AS Marsa, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game.
ES Sahel, last 5: LLDWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to ES Metlaoui, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.6 conceded per game.
Momentum favours ES Sahel, collecting 1.4 points per game to 0.4 for ES Zarzis.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give ES Zarzis 1.2 xG, ES Sahel 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 35%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – ES Zarzis 38%, draw 28%, ES Sahel 33%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.35.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.35 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (61%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.65, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: ES Zarzis 1–1 ES Sahel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
ES Zarzis38%fair 2.60 · @2.75
Draw28%fair 3.56 · @2.70
ES Sahel33%fair 2.99 · @2.70
2.29Expected goals
1.24ES Zarzis xG
1.05ES Sahel xG
50%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: ES Zarzis 1.2 – 1.1 ES Sahel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ES Zarzis to win✓
38%
2.60
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.39
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
2.35 ▲
Draw no bet
ES Zarzis (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
ES Sahel +1 (Asian handicap)✗
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.70
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
ES Zarzis to score first
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ES Zarzis / FT ES Zarzis✗
23%
4.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.25
–
Recent results
ES Zarzis – last 5
LDLDL
30 Apr
@ AS Marsa
0–1
L
23 Apr
@ ES Tunis
2–2
D
6 Mar
@ AS Soliman
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs JS Kairouanaise
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ US Monastirienne
0–3
L
0.6Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
ES Sahel – last 5
LLDWW
29 Apr
@ ES Metlaoui
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Stade Gabesien
3–4
L
8 Mar
@ Stade Tunisien
1–1
D
28 Feb
vs AS Soliman
1–0
W
13 Feb
@ JS Kairouanaise
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ES Zarzis and ES Sahel.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win ES Zarzis vs ES Sahel?
On our numbers ES Zarzis have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and ES Sahel 33%.
How many goals will there be in ES Zarzis vs ES Sahel?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ES Zarzis vs ES Sahel?
Our predicted score is ES Zarzis 1–1 ES Sahel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is ES Zarzis vs ES Sahel?
ES Zarzis vs ES Sahel (Ligue 1) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
US Monastirienne0