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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Greece v Italy: numbers & prediction

Friendlies · World · Pankritio Stadium

Greece

DDL
0–1
FT

Italy

WW
Greece 42%Draw 26%Italy 32% Expected goals 1.15 – 1.03
77%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.30Odds
2

Value bet: Italy to win @ 3.55 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultGreece to win ✗42% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.00

Greece vs Italy: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Italy travel to face Greece on Sunday 7 June in the Friendlies, with Pankritio Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT.

Current form

Greece, last 3: DDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Sweden, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Greece 1.1 xG, Italy 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Greece 42%, draw 26%, Italy 32%.
  • GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.75.
  • Price worth noting: Italy to win @3.55 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 32%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Greece 1–1 Italy. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Greece42%fair 2.36 · @2.00
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.45
Italy32%fair 3.17 · @3.55
2.18Expected goals
1.15Greece xG
1.03Italy xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%

From our goals model: Greece 1.1 – 1.0 Italy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

GreeceItaly
Attack vs Friendlies average-11%-1%
Goals conceded vs average-6%-16%
Our expected goals here1.161.19

Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGreece to win ✗42%2.362.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74%1.351.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗55%1.821.75
Draw no betGreece (draw no bet) ✗57%1.74–
Asian handicapItaly +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.62–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗68%1.471.30
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓57%1.761.85 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77%1.301.30
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.121.10
First team to scoreGreece to score first ✗47%2.14–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗48%2.10–
Half-time / full-timeHT Greece / FT Greece ✗22%4.60–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%13.00–

Recent results

Greece – last 3

DDL
4 Jun@ Sweden2–2D
31 Mar@ Hungary0–0D
27 Marvs Paraguay0–1L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Italy – last 2

WW
3 Jun@ Luxembourg1–0W
26 Marvs Northern Ireland2–0W
1.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Greece and Italy.

Greece vs Italy head-to-head page →

More Friendlies predictions

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FT Curaçao4 Aruba0 167%1.09X17%8.00216%21.00 2.5–1.6xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 73%@1.36 ✓
FT Argentina2 Honduras0 178%1.11X14%7.7527%25.00 2.8–0.7xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 66%@1.48 ✗
FT Afghanistan0 Pakistan2 139%2.38X23%3.00238%2.85 0.8–0.8xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 69%@1.55 ✓
FT Liechtenstein0 Cyprus2 117%10.00X22%4.60260%1.28 0.9–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.22 ✓
FT Kenya4 Lesotho0 165%1.70X22%3.20214%5.10 1.6–0.5xG 1Kenya to win 65%@1.70 ✓
– Oman Mozambique 126%2.35X53%3.00220%2.95 1.3–1.2xG 1XOman or draw 80%@1.30
FT Maldives1 Bangladesh U231 129%2.10X51%3.25220%3.00 0.9–0.8xG 1XMaldives or draw 80%@1.30 ✓
– Denmark2 Ukraine1 158%1.65X24%3.70218%5.10 1.5–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.30

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Greece vs Italy?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Greece vs Italy?

On our numbers Greece have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Italy 32%.

How many goals will there be in Greece vs Italy?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Greece vs Italy?

Our predicted score is Greece 1–1 Italy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Greece vs Italy?

Greece vs Italy (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 7 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Pankritio Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.