Central Espanol 40%Draw 28%Cerro 33%Expected goals 1.18 – 1.15
66%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Cerro to win @ 3.50 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCentral Espanol to win ✓40% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.87
Central Espanol vs Cerro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 26 April the Primera División Apertura brings Central Espanol against Cerro at Parque Palermo. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Central Espanol are 16th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 13 matches; Cerro are 9th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Central Espanol, last 5: LWWDL Their latest outing: 1–6 defeat to Albion FC, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Cerro, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Atletico Torque, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Central Espanol 1.2 xG, Cerro 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Central Espanol 40%, draw 28%, Cerro 33%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Cerro to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Central Espanol 1–1 Cerro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Central Espanol40%fair 2.53 · @2.08
Draw28%fair 3.63 · @3.10
Cerro33%fair 3.05 · @3.50
2.33Expected goals
1.18Central Espanol xG
1.15Cerro xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Central Espanol 1.2 – 1.2 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Central Espanol
Cerro
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-31%
-9%
Goals conceded vs average
+24%
+20%
Our expected goals here
1.06
1.21
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Central Espanol to win✓
40%
2.53
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.95
Draw no bet
Central Espanol (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Cerro +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Central Espanol to score first
46%
2.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Central Espanol / FT Central Espanol✓
21%
4.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.87
–
Recent results
Central Espanol – last 6
LWWDLD
18 Apr
@ Albion FC
1–6
L
4 Apr
@ Club Nacional
1–0
W
31 Mar
vs Deportivo Maldonado
2–1
W
24 Mar
@ Liverpool Montevideo
3–3
D
15 Mar
vs Cerro Largo
1–3
L
9 Mar
@ Defensor Sporting
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Cerro – last 6
DDWWLL
19 Apr
vs Atletico Torque
1–1
D
11 Apr
@ Cerro Largo
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Defensor Sporting
1–0
W
25 Mar
vs Juventud
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Penarol
1–3
L
8 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Central Espanol and Cerro.
What is the prediction for Central Espanol vs Cerro?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Central Espanol vs Cerro?
On our numbers Central Espanol have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Cerro 33%.
How many goals will there be in Central Espanol vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Central Espanol vs Cerro?
Our predicted score is Central Espanol 1–1 Cerro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Central Espanol vs Cerro?
Central Espanol vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Palermo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
